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Political Analyst: Revolutionary Process Is Already Underway In Belarus

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Political Analyst: Revolutionary Process Is Already Underway In Belarus
PHOTO: VADZIM RYMAKOU

Any social crisis is enough for an explosion – for example, a sharp rise of the dollar exchange rate.

Moscow is not going to support the Belarusian regime to the same extend as before, which means that the regime will be weakened by the next presidential elections.

In the discussion "Belarus 2019: state of the country and political actors", held by the project Belarus Security Blog, experts tried to predict the development of the situation of domestic and foreign policy for the Belarusian state, thinktanks.by writes.

– We are experiencing a new stage of development of the Belarusian-Russian relations. We see that Russia deprives Minsk of allowances, Belarusian economic model, which is called unique, has turned to be unique in its abortiveness, – Andrei Parotnikau, the coordinator of the Belarus Security Blog project, noted. – Actually, crisis phenomena begun 10 years ago in our economy, but they were stopped by a large-scale Russian support all those years. And now Moscow is changing its behavior strategy and there will be no more support, at least in such volumes.

Political analyst Siarhei Nikalyuk is sure that the revolutionary process has already been observed in Belarus.

"The first part of the revolution is an ethical stage, which consists in, so to speak, lapse of the regime from virtue, that is, there was the Father the Tsar, who then turned into the main enemy, – the political analyst explained. – Unfortunately, we do not have all the necessary sociological data as the IISEPS stopped it's activities, we do not know exactly the Lukashenka's rating, but, I think, it's not less than 25%. This is quite a high rating, but the process of ethical phase is already underway."

– The next stage of the revolution – organizational one. And we are witnessing it every day: the authorities have long been unable to make and to accomplish any decision related to the development. Yes, it can change one person for another, it also can lambast, for example, woodworking industry, but it is unable to solve a single developmental task, – Siarhei Nikalyuk said.

– Ideological stage is a very important stage in a crisis or a revolution, – the political analyst reminded. – There arises need for an alternative in a society. Society in Belarus is divided; there have always been supporters of the other way of development in the country – 20-30%, but there is also the majority, which has no any alternative at all. They may complain of power, but it doesn't form an alternative.

A moment of an acute political crisis is needed to cause an explosion.

And the political analyst believes, that such critical condition in Belarus may be caused by a sharp raise of the dollar exchange rate or by any other social problem.

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