Adventures of the Lackey

Dear guests came to Belarus. The dearest ones.

For now it is difficult to imagine how much the country can pay for this adventure of its shy ruler. His wise head invents imaginary terrorists and other enemies. And soldiers from the East have come to protect us from this misfortune. And he can't say "No".

Before the start of odious exercises "West-2017" a month and a half left, and Russian troops are already here. What is going on? Such an excessive zeal causes bad associations. And this is not only about those who face foreign soldiers. Neighbours, near and distant ones, are concerned: what are soldiers preparing for? Moreover, there are grounds for such concerns. Why did the Russian commander demand more than four thousand carriages for these maneuvers, if the recent most numerous exercises were not so large-scale? What are these echelons going to transport?

The Russian command hurried to allay fears. There are no grounds for a concern, these are ordinary, planned exercises. Soldiers will just take trainings and leave. There are a lot of those who are ready to believe shy speeches of staff officers. In fact, why should troops remain in a foreign country? Does Russia need a new war? The Crimea and the Donbass still cause huge problems. Anyone who feels like it execrates us and considers aggressors. Why do you drag up that old story? Anything can happen. It's the devil's work. The Kremlin has a peace-loving foreign policy. So isn't it better to start from scratch?

But the news from the southern frontier are neither here nor there. The chief of the General Staff of Ukraine stated that Russia was deploying three motorized rifle divisions near the borders of his country. Judging by the armament and structure, these are shock troops. During exercises "West-2017" it can deploy hidden ammunition storage facilities in the Belarusian territory. And after the completion of the exercises it can leave a part of troops in Belarus.

Will there be a new Russian invasion of Ukraine, or this time everything will be limited only by fuss and demonstration of readiness for decisive actions? Military analysts have different opinions on this issue. So far, the only thing is clear: no one really knows anything. The answer to this question depends on many things. Everything is too fragile and vague. The only thing does not raise any doubts in March 2018 Putin has presidential elections. He is unlikely to resign, as many people hoped to. This time the electorate will demand higher salaries for their voices.

Foreign territories which become their own is an indisputable value, as recent experience shows.

Belarus seems to be an ally for an eastern neighbor. But even here, there is some kind of intricate mess with Russian soldiers. Paratroopers on armored vehicles pass through the streets of Brest. They are replaced by engineer troops; they establish bridges on the Dnieper. Some signalmen suddenly appear. Then troublemakers in Russian camouflage rush to the western border. Some soldiers arrive and some leave. Once again they can appear in the same place where they once were. Or in a new place. And all official explanations for this suspicious fuss in our territory are utterly monotonous: redeployment of military units in the framework of exercises West-2017.

In these troubled times inhabitants of cities and villages exhausted by this obsessive militarization have a belief - to survive the luckless September, and if these neighbor troops really leave, they can finally breathe freely. You're miles out!

Russia will not get off either Ukraine's, the Baltic states', or Belarus' back. Like all former republics of the long-dead Soviet Union. Russia is not just a country. This is an empire. And, therefore, it cannot live without new territories. Inventions about a kind of brotherhood and life-long friendship with an aggressive mass of offended and obsessed with revenge are lyrical tales for potential suckers. It would be a luck if the country remains ours in this pseudo-defensive mess. We do not have an extra one.

Every Kremlin ruler is loved and revered only if he invades new territories. Otherwise, there is a riot, senseless and ruthless one, the loss of power and oblivion. The problem is not only about Putin. Someone new will take his place and it will be the same old story. Russia is not capable of getting used to its new borders. Especially western ones. Neither the Kremlin leadership, nor the military men, nor drunkards from the province do not take them seriously. This is not the border of their state, but some offensive and extremely unfair boundary of a settled area. Therefore, the empire and many of its subjects constantly feel humiliation and offence.

What? The border near Smolensk? What if a soul cries for space? And they suddenly burst with desire to drive an armored personnel carrier or a tank to the Crimea or Yurmala. Why should they suffer and be silent? And it is when Brest is actually a native city. And this man from Minsk screams in every way that the Belarusians are the same Russians only with some kind of superfluous sign. The road is straight. Everything was explored and developed long ago. What should soldiers do?

And then "Crimearisours" is not the last bag of game. "Russia raises from its knees." And how else can it do it? Build roads, improve laws, take care of welfare of the people? It takes too much time and it's annoying as hell. It is much easier to wait for an opportunity, to launch green men, to deploy tanks and you have the upper hand. It's great and familiar. The electorate is immensely happy. The leader is a permanent one and people person.

Who said that borders were inviolable? And what if they are "granted" the status of the boundary of a settled area? It's archaic and prejudice. One needs just two sweaty men to uproot the striped pillar. And then an experienced scheme comes. No sanctions can threaten the Third Rome. Russia has two ally - the army and the navy.

September 14 is about to come. And the question whether these soldiers leave after the completion of the exercises is still acute. It's time to accept betting. It's a pity that after the exercises the situation will hardly clear up. This is a murky game. This is a deception. Its outcome, it seems, will depend on who hides more cards in the sleeve.

Meanwhile, a new wave of Russian soldiers is settled near our western border. It is announced that these are technical troops. They will sink their teeth into the ground, deploy communication junctions, build a command post of great generals. In September the colonel and generalissimo will stand shoulder to shoulder. They will be in charge of troops. They will listen to the rumble of the battle, throw short and evil remarks. The line of "steadfasts". It's fume and smoke. There's stench and anger. The situation is as hard as hell. "Enemies" are all around.

And when a conditional enemy is shattered, they may have a talk. To send a signal to the electorate. And even sign some kind of joint piece of paper. But will the troops remain or will they leave?

The question is taken out of context. Before answering, one should remember about missed opportunities. Do not forget who obtains power. And that it is already the twenty-fourth year of shameful grovelling before the Kremlin. We should think about what the country is capable of being up in the air. Can it exist in reality and what was the real purpose for some ridiculous union state. Belarus does not even have a real border on the most problematic direction. Belarusian house is a miracle - three walls and the West instead of the fourth one. What a great game!

But we still have a chance. Passports with double-headed bird have not been issued here. So, follow the hand.

Uladzimir Khalip for Charter97.org