The Last Autumn of the "Patriarch"?

New Decree No. 3 prepares the Belarusian Maidan.

Self-possession is an indispensable feature for a politician. But where to find it when they graduated not from Oxford, but "Shklou University" and have nostalgia for the "Gorodets" state farm.

Well, Aliaksandr Lukashenka could not restrain himself and snapped out that the decree on "spongers" were back from October 1. And it was not the end. He fell under a criminal article considering the Constitution when required to make 300 thousand people work whatever it takes.

Amended Decree No. 3 will awaken so many problems so that October 1 may become a watershed in the recent history of Belarus. "In one day it will not become possible to make "yesterday" back. I wonder why Lukashenka can't be up to it," Aleh Volchek, former investigator at the Prosecutor's Office and the head of the human rights center Legal Assistance to the Population, explained Charter97.org.

- Once again the ruler of Belarus speaks of the necessity to make everyone work. How do you assess his statement about the return of the decree on "spongers"?

- Both these words and the decree itself are a gross violation of the Constitution. The authorities do not want to understand that Decree No. 3 contradicts international treaties of Belarus. And it gives the ground to use the International Labour Organization and international human rights structures to fight against it.

The revival of the decree proves political blindness of the authority. The system is approaching to its end, it has last for two years, since the original version of the decree has been adopted. The decree has been "modernized" a little, but all complexities caused by its entry into force will not be removed.

There is the only way out - to abolish the decree once and for all. In the worst-case scenario, to introduce a complete moratorium on it, if they are so afraid of the word "abolish".

Anyway, it will still be a violation of human rights, if there is a small group of people who is subject to this tax after its numerous amendments. This issue will be raised at the international level by politicians and human rights activists, and after the first "letters of happiness" Belarusians will start to resent, write complaints, resist, and then go to the Square. It will cause a wave of protests across the country. But unlike in spring, this time it can be even severe because the situation has significantly deteriorated.

After my visits to the regions I'm on my way to the Vitsebsk region. I talked to people in Polatsk. Even there people have no job! One can get a position on a glass factory only with connections. In Polatsk I talked to former MVD officiers who had to resign. Many of them fall into a "pension trap", but now they cannot find a job. And since Octover 1 they are offered to be "spongers". It is clear that this is the way to prejudice the majority of people including those who secure the order against the authority.

This is the situation in Polatsk. And the situation even worse in towns. When talking to people I've learned that Belarusians know perfectly how the authority treat them and they are not going to pay it a penny. Moreover, they are ready to protest. A protest is to happen in the autumn.

That is why the regime has decided to "neutralize" such a major politician and leader of independent Trade Unions as Henadz Fyadynich. Searches at REP offices in Minsk and the Belarusian Independent Trade Union in Salihorsk are a veiled fear before autumn protests.

- Lukashenka, with his characteristic impudence, expressed his personal position on the decree. But his Minister of Labour has uncovered some provisions of the "amended" law. According to Iryna Kastsevich, "spongers" should pay for medicine and other social services of the state. What does it mean?

- This is a gross violation of our Constitution. The first article of it says that the Republic of Belarus is a social state. The state is obliged to ensure social protection, and we should not pay for it regardless of whether we work or not. Medicine should serve our citizens regardless of their occupation; this is the constitutional duty of the state.

The refusal to provide medical assistance will become a gross failure on the part of the authorities both in the sphere of human rights and in the field of social policy. This will be an extremely careless step, and it will be virtually impossible for the authorities to return everything as it was "before".

I can barely imagine the situation when an unemployed person is sick, and by Decree No. 3 he is refused medical assistance. Doctors are simply obligated to help any person! I think people simply will not leave clinics demanding compliance with their legal rights. And people will take the side of those unemployed who protest in polyclinics.

Discontent will accumulate in the society. People in the regions are already extremely irate at lack of work and money. And it will be the point of no return if there is no free medical assistance. People will start to gather for a mass protest in order to defend their rights.

- What do you think of the idea of the authorities, voiced by Iryna Kastsevich, to create a total database about a position of every Belarusian?

- Once again, this is a gross violation of the Constitution considering our personal life. Such statements sound like a violation of the inviolability of home, privacy of correspondence, freedom of movement. Each of us has the right to move freely and not to report, where and how he works or does not work at all.

Compilation of total lists is not only a huge waste of money. It can bring the government to unpredictable consequences. It seems like Lukashenka does not control the situation anymore. Can't he see and understand that the autumn Maidan is about to happen in the country? And his inner circle and his Administration actively "prepare" it.

The new decree on "spongers" is familiar to everybody, and October 1 may become a turning point in the Belarusian history. Moreover, the international community, the USA, the UN are well aware of the decree. And its revival can lead to severe consequences. Everyone is tumultuous since the revival of Decree No. 3 has been announced.

There is no logic in the actions of the authorities. There are mood swings in the society. People in the streets talk to civil rights activists, opposition leaders and speak out their discontent about the situation. Let higher officials use a public transport and find out many interesting things about themselves and Lukashenka. Let them understand that they just provoke a people's Maidan by this decree.