The Money "Funnel" Turned into the Tornado

Every 75 kopecks of each invested ruble are lost.

"during the crisis that has been raging in our country since 2009, the authority observes the situation and as soon as it becomes better it states that the "Belarusian model" is the best in the world. If the situation deteriorates, talks about reforms which are never brought to the end start. As a result, all the crisis years we run in place not solving any problems in our economy," observer of the Belgazeta Aliaksandr Abukhovich writes.

Now having discovered that the economy demonstrates some "stabilization" signs, and GDP indicates a poor increase of 0.9% the government has rushed to state that "the crisis bottom is reached and the economy starts recovering." "Alas, here is other case of wishful thinking. There are only two factors for a so-called growth: an increase in export prices for our products by 20% and additional money of GDP by 4% to the economy," the expert assures.

"There still no grounds for price increase, it is a long-term tendency: last year we had a similar price increase, import prices also grow. It's rather a true sign of faith that can vanish tomorrow.

Considering growth of M2 by BYN1.4 billion and receipts of $1.4 billion, first, the balance of these figures allowed to restrain the dollar exchange course; second, the overall effect will help to somehow compensate the damage inflicted by a harsh monetary policy of the country's economy. And the profit on the economy has grown, the aggregate demand has increased, and non-payments have declined. And it has affected the GDP growth," the author notes.

"However, the effect of thrown-in money looks disastrous from the other point: every additional ruble (including thrown-in foreign currency in terms of exchange rate) promoted the economy growth only by 25 kopecks. The ratio is 4:1. Although, if the economy is working, the ratio should have been 1:3. When the crisis had the ratio of 1:1 in the USA, it was taken as the evidence of serious problems in their economy. It is hard to imagine what our ratio 4:1 can mean but a complete incompetence of the authority," the expert warns.

Moreover, investments (the effect of them does not appear immediately) continues to decline. And thrown in money are spent on replenishment of the working capital (earlier eaten out by the National Bank), debt repayment, consumption. Money has not reached the destination - financing growth. "It means that the effect of the "stabilization" and such a "growth" is temporary and soon enough could turn into the situation deterioration," the author sums up.