Military Expert: Putin Left Some Troops In Belarus

It is almost impossible to track the withdrawal of the Russian military units after the West-2017 drills.

The joint Russian-Belarusian exercises West-2017 ended, as it would seem, without apparent consequences. There have been no attacks on Ukraine from the north; no attacks on the Baltic countries or Eastern Europe either, although many warned there might be some, before the start of the exercises. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov told the Apostrophe, what the Kremlin wanted from these drills and whether Russia managed to achieve its goal:

— On the first day of the exercises it became crystal-clear that there would be no provocations. And, in principle, the purpose of these exercises became evident. Why? A record number of foreign observers filed applications to monitor these exercises — there were 270 applicants. Only 80 applications were satisfied. As far as I understand, the Russian Federation has selected the most interesting countries for accreditation from the list — and satisfied these applications.

Immediately it became clear that this would be an exemplary performance of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in order to demonstrate its capabilities of conducting a hybrid war. In fact, they very beautifully played out the script of the occupation and annexation of the Crimea to the public. I do not know how much of this will be realized now, because they actually played it all out throughout the territory of Belarus. I think that, most likely, the Anschluss will take place, whatever President Lukashenka would say and despite any resistance from him. I think that the [Russian] troops will remain. It will be impossible to control their withdrawal in the actual fact. Although only one division entered — 12 thousand 700 people, but they are dispersed in all seven firing grounds of Belarus. It will be unreal to track their movement and withdrawal, or very hard at the least. And they will stay. The only question is to which extent the scenario that was played back at the firing grounds will be realistic — in order to play it out in real life.

The very attitude of Vladimir Putin is important: he did not come to Minsk and did not invite the Belarusian side to the demonstration part of the exercises either. The General Staff of the Russian Federation did not even agree on the issues of combat training during the exercises with the General Staff of Belarus: they changed the schedule of the training without informing the Belarusian side about it.

This shows that the main task was to frighten the whole world, to show the ability of the Russian armed forces in terms of conducting hybrid operations — these are the "green men", the separatists, landing, localization and the like. This is the scenario of the Crimea. They just showed the world how they implemented it.

The purpose of the exercises, I believe, is achieved in full. Why? Eastern Europe panics. Western Europe is angry, Germany is the angriest, because it is a confrontation, and they need to agree, for instance, on energy supplies. And Russia behaves aggressively, and Europe cannot find common ground for a dialogue with the Kremlin. The United States watch all this from aside with a smirk, because they know the real situation and understand what the Russian armed forces are: their combat capability, their combat potential, and their combat abilities.

The number of accidents and incidents in the course of the exercises just indicates the level of "professionalism" of the Russian armed forces. The accident with the TU-22M3 in the Kaluga region, with the combat training aircraft Yak-130, a shot at the parking lot from a combat helicopter — all this indicates that these troops still need to learn and learn. As they say, a Russian missile can fly away — but where will it fly? This is the main question. That's why I'm saying that the US stands aside, watching and hiding a smirk, because they understand the real state of the Russian armed forces.

And, in fact, the United States benefit the most from such a demonstration of the Russian Federation. They frighten Europe: look, what a terrible Russia! Do you want security? Here you are, there is NATO, a system of collective security. But for security, as Donald Trump said, you need — what? — to pay. And at the last summit [of the alliance] the issue of increasing the military expenditures for all NATO member countries was raised.

And pay attention — there were no provocations against us. The main goal was to intimidate NATO and Europe. Like, Russia needs to be friends with, Russia needs to be loved, Russia needs to be feared and respected. They have respect built on the basis of fear. Everyone fears, and thus respects, the strong. This was the main goal of the exercises. I think that it has been achieved.