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Will Lukashenka Wake up Handcuffed Tomorrow?

Will Lukashenka Wake up Handcuffed Tomorrow?
Alexei Arestovich

A Ukrainian military expert believes that the Belarusian ruler has finished in a bad way.

This is less than two weeks left before Russia-Belarus military exercises West-2017. Many people see a military threat for Belarus itself, Ukraine and the Baltic states. Military expert and blogger Alexei Arestovich commented Apostrophe on the situation.

- Alexei, Russia-Belarus military exercises are about to begin. Earlier you warned about a smooth occupation of Belarus and the threat to Ukraine during these exercises. How do you assess such a probability now?

- There are two ridiculous events of this week. First, when our young man was lured out and kidnapped in Belarus. Second, when the head of the Belarusian General Staff announced that there was the base of the Right Sector on the border with the Rivno voblast and exercises were required. It's a familiar rhetoric.

We can state that representatives of higher staff in the military sphere of Belarus are complicit in Russian crimes. The majority of Belarusian security forces took the pro-Russian side, at least, at the leadership level. Here follows another question: how much can Lukashenka's policy be independent in this case? After promises he made in Kyiv (integration, economic an so on) will Aliaksandr Lukashenka wake up handcuffed and proclaimed the traitor of the Belarusian people and the Union State [Russia and Belarus]? We do not know further steps of Belarus, but, according to latest facts, the fact that the Belarusian security forces surely take the side of Russia cannot but be concerning. The other concerning fact is that Belarus borders with the Baltic States, Poland.

- What should Ukraine be afraid of?

- It is that there appears a hostile state and the military threat on the northern border, instead of a relatively friendly or, at least, neutral state that supplied the Ukrainian army with fuel (Belarus used to do it). And it becomes even worse if we add the number of Belarusian siloviks to Russian ones.

- What is your prediction about a smooth occupation of Belarus?

- Now we should specify the "occupation". Does this mean tanks at every intersection?

- And what do you mean?

- I mean that Russia has launched a large-scale special operation on seizure and control of Belarusian foreign and domestic policies. De facto, this deprives Belarus from its sovereignty while its de jure preservation and a growing number of levers of real power over Belarus' politics. That is, Russia really starts managing the internal and foreign policy of Belarus.

Occupation is simply a resonant media term. We talk about seizure of power in Belarus. Tanks or even troops are not required here. For example, a wise work with siloviks is the best option. The Crimea experienced this scheme. In Dagestan two officers of the former Crimean Alpha who ratted the Ukrainian oath and took the Russian side died. And 90% of the Crimean staff of the Security Service of Ukraine took the side of Russia. Why was it done? Because they were persuaded for long in a right way. They were influenced in different ways. And it's much more profitable. It has been practiced for long.

- What is it needed for now? As far as we know, Lukashenka is quite agreeable in principle.

- It has the roots of 2005 year. Russia has unfurled a strategic campaign against the West. In 2005 such a decision was made after our first Maidan. They were frightened thinking that NATO was violating its promises of non-expansion to the east, promises that were made after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany.

Putin has saved trillions of dollars, had his all personal problems solved...

- Will he invade Belarus?

- No, what should be done? What to do in this situation? You have no and will not have any domestic problems, you have a large country with nuclear weapons, you trampled everything there.

- However, the situation is not so bright in Russia as well.

- What does "bright" mean? If the Kruykovo village of the Orenburg province has no piped gas it's not the level of Putin.

- Protests, Navalny...

- It means that one head fights another on the order of the Kremlin. Well, what to do? The collapse of the Soviet Union was the main geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century and the main personal tragedy for this man. He personally admitted that. And here you have the tragedy that annoys and bothers you, and you have resources to cope with it. What will be the next step?

He initiates the restoration of the Soviet Union and moves towards the West. The objective is a partial restoration of the Soviet Union, the collapse of the West, its supranational blocs or their significant weakening, and the new stage of the redivision of the world. The multipolar world is the main thing many starting from Dugin to Surkov, Zhirinovsky and Rogozin have beaten the air with. And the program has been launched in 2005.

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