A final countdown has started.
The ruler ignored the Paris Forum. At first glance, it may seem unwise. The President of France invited him. All the leaders of counties involved in the First World War were there. I would seem that it's unwise to ignore it even if no one likes him there. It's not an occasional meeting of some officials. It's the centenery of the war which shook and divided Belarus.
However, he decided not to go. He missed the opportunity to appear among famous people and later to boast of photos made there. He refused and was right. Because a thick fog filled Drazdy. It was weird and suspicious. Who could be careless to leave home unattended?
This land is filled with danger. Everything may happen in these autumn nights. And guards could hardly be blamed. Because the visibility range is minimum during these days. Outside perimeter is under increased contol. And even an empty field with dancing girls on it and celebrating the harvesting caused no alarm. However, the unexpected happened right there.
Thick fog covered the field, and the dark blot of energy appeared. There was nothing supernatural. On the contrary, it would seem increasingly familiar and even weighty. As if a president of a post-Soviet country dropped into to borrow spare laces for his favorite shoes produced by Marco, which, as he was earlier persuaded, could serve him for long-long time.
Extreme measures did make any sense. Moreover, a special guard wearing slippers without his socks on was in a hurry to meet an unexpected guest. But it was clear that is was the wrong guest and it meant contacts of another kind. For a moment the whole world witnessed well-known moustache.
However, the wind made this fog fade away. And along with it this strange image disappeared. Only one secret not mentioned in reports has remained. There was nothing extraordinary. It may happen in autumn amid a certain disposition of planets.
Autums is the time of illusions, sometimes really dangerous. A number of authoritative European officials has recently had a ride along main streets of foggy Minsk - they were members of the Munich Conference. The route was the same for Wess Mitchell, the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, and other high officials from Western countries. And it was the beginning of a great plan. The last dictator of Europe has allegedly become popular again. There is an obvious awkwardness in this unexpected situation. That's why everyone tends to see at least an illusion of changes. For the better, of course.
It cannot be that nothing changes in the course of time. One just needs to be patient. In the end things will mend. Time has its own wheels. And guests have barely forgotten things they used to know about the regime. Europeans and Americans are well aware of true nature of the regime.
However, the resistance has reached its extremum in this world. And other crisis, like long-forgotten Caribbean one, may cause an overt conflict. And here we observe the situation aggravation about the deployment of the Russian military base in Belarus. And the very Gavrilo Princip could be a good partner in negotiations.
And the ruler does not hesitate that he takes the winning position in these conditions. And he keeps coming up with inappropriate schemes. He ignores the Paris Forum involving many leaders of European countries, who come together not only to commemorate victims of the First World War, but to try to resist an extremely obvious imminence of a possible catastrophe. He tries to start a new game with the West.
Will there be the Russian military base? Will Putin finally succeed? Will the country manage to find strength to resist the imperial enlargement? Everyone is awating an answer. TV channels disseminate his seemingly clear statement: "As of today, I see no use to attract other state, even Russia, to perform our duties. That's why we are totally against the deployment." It would seem that a long-waited answer is received.
But he immediately comes up with a tricky scheme, which causes buttom. Here we need a prehistory, because everything is drowning in thick fog. "We are totally against any deployment, especially of a military base. Approach control takes 3-5 minutes. Why do we need a military base here then?
It's an increasingly weird argument. It is about the time of approach. He does not care about the sovereignty of the country. Cna our neighbors sleep well after such reasons? And if we recall a sudden landing of Russian military aircraft near Babruisk, constant exercises of Pskov and other paratroopers on the Brest training field and many other facts, no trace of the western myth about local peacekeeper will remain.
New fans of an old dictator, who somehow decided to experience the same trap for some reason, will face the very same confusion. An attempt to turn Putin's ally into a promoter of European values is useless and doubtful. Little time will pass by, and even greatest optimists will realize how right his decision not to participate in the Paris Forum was. Dictators have their own holidays and values.
There are those who were impressed by this fog and silence. I would seem that everything froze here. But these are illusions of the country covered with fog. Could any leap of hope appear under the regime? Three years after the collapse of the Soviet Union are not taken into consideration. As a result, we have the same brutal force, omnipresent special services, goons wearing the uniform, paddy wagons and even tanks. And the impenetrable wall of the regime collapsed in a moment.
Everything goes as it is, without any drastic changes. Everything is clear with this country. There is nothing to wait. Time has its own rules to follow. When despair reaches its almost unbearable proportions, it tends to mean that the desperation point has been overcome.
And a final countdown has started.
Uladzimir Khalip, especially for Charter97.org