Marholin: Lukashenka Is In Fact Same Sovkhoz Director He Used To Be

The dictator assigns the role of an auxiliary worker to the government.

Oil prices, IMF favor, iron discipline: what does the economic growth of Belarus depend on?

The World Bank predicts a decline in the growth of the Belarusian economy to 2-2.5% per year.

– When the effect of the low base of 2017 stops, economic growth will slow down, – the World Bank economist Marina Sidorenko said.

The day before, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development confirmed its forecast for GDP growth in Belarus in 2018 at 3%, but lowered its estimate of economic growth in the country in 2019 from 3% to 2.5%.

Why?

– There is no investment flow, or any favorable conditions like rising of oil price. Therefore, there is no background for accelerating the growth of the Belarusian economy, – the economist Leu Marholin said in an interview with zautra.by.

– What factors are influencing the Belarusian economy most now? First of all, lack of investment, reduced productivity. Also, the oil price and attempts to outwit the Russian allies in the oil and gas fields are of great importance.

In general, it is easier to say what does not affect our economy, since everything is interconnected in the modern world.

– Can the authorities change the situation for the better?

– Belarusian leadership is unable to make external factors more favorable.

To change the internal conditions, which could give a steady growth, to attract investment, it is necessary to reform the economy, political system and judiciary. But Aliaksandr Lukashenka treats the government as an auxiliary worker while developing the strategy himself. And what a strategist Lukashenka is we could see after 25 years of his rule.

– In your opinion, is it possible to convince Lukashenka to interfere less in the economy?

– Periodically, he tries to persuade us he has changed, but it takes little time for his real essence to get out. Whatever we may think of him there is no doubting his self-consistency. He is, in fact, the same sovkhoz director he used to be. He does not see other options for influencing the economy, except for the severe discipline.

– How does dependence on Russia affect the economy of Belarus?

– If Russia showed today the wonders of growth, then Belarus, probably, could follow it like a trailer. Although, in recent years, the Belarusian economy is losing its competitiveness even on the Russian market. Belarusian industry loses to Chinese, Europeans and other manufacturers on the Russian field.

In Russia, there is at least some kind of capitalism, a market economy, in which mainly private money is invested.

But our eastern neighbors are under sanctions, so it's not likely that there will be any significant economic growth in Russia.

– Can Belarus today count on help from the West?

– Representatives of the Belarusian government answered this question when they said that the topic of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund in 2019 was closed. And cooperation with the IMF is not only loans, but also a signal for everyone else. Until the fund does not give the go-ahead, neither the European Union nor international banks will even look at Belarus. And for this to happen, we need at least such reforms as the elimination of cross-subsidies in utility tariffs, the privatization of state-owned enterprises, or the solution of the problem of their management.