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Lukashenka's Regime Is Hanging by a Thread

Lukashenka's Regime Is Hanging by a Thread

Why have Russians broken into a sweat?

On December 13 during a visit to Brest, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev suggested introducing the Russian ruble, a single customs service, a court and an accounting chamber in Belarus. Leader of the European Belarus campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka commented Charter97.org on the statement of the Russian Prime Minister and the latest speech of Lukashenka for Russian mass media:

- Medvedev's visit to Belarus is planned. The Brest meeting was planned a long time ago, so there's nothing unexpected. Unexpectedly, Medvedev, who usually plays the role of a good follower, suddenly made tough statements.

- Why are these statements made right now?

- They are caused by the fact that the Russian authorities know the real situation in Belarus, Lukashenka's real rating, the real state of the economy, and they understand that everything hangs by a thread, because the popular upheaval, social protests can overthrow Lukashenka at any moment. And since he is associated with the image of the Russian puppet, it will naturally affect interests of Russia.

Russia itself suffers great challenges on all fronts, first of all in the economy. The Kremlin fears that Lukashenka will be overthrown by popular protests, and Russians will be back at the bottom of the ladder, as it used to be with their appointees in Yugoslavia, Armenia, Ukraine and earlier in the Warsaw Pact countries.

There are objective laws of history, and no matter what the Kremlin or Lukashenka try to do, Belarus will still become a part of Europe, because it is geographically located here. It will become a democratic country with a market economy. We are all witnessing the moment that is very similar to events of late 1980s and early 1990s in Central and Eastern Europe.

- Presidential and parliamentary elections are in the offing in Belarus. Don't Medvedev's recent statements remind you of the situation on the eve of presidential elections-2010? Medvedev, by the way, was the president of Russia at that time, and the Kremlin was exerting serious pressure on Lukashenka, demanding greater integration.

- I guess the situation is different. The so-called Lukashenka model died in 2011. Now the economic situation is really severe in Belarus. Lukashenka himself admits that he takes loans in Russia at the stratospheric interest rate. He says that we borrow 4-5 billion from Russia, and debt service costs 1 billion 200 million dollars a year. So the interest rate equals to 25 percent per annum.

This is nuts. His situation is a disaster, his creditors have already put a gun against his head, he takes loans to prevent riots from bursting every day. The economy is inefficient - from zero to $40 billion of loans have been taken over the past 15 years. Pensions and salaries are mainly paid out of these loans. He tries to retain power.

- How do you think the transition of Belarus to democracy will happen?

- The opposition, as Jauhen Afnahel has recently said, should hear the voice of the people. Should be with the people, as Mikalai Statkevich says. Then we will succeed. And today the people want changes, they are extremely fed up with Lukashenka and his gang. Search for international allies is required, we need to explain the real state of affairs in the country, not to go to the West and murmur that Lukashenka is supposedly a guarantor of independence, as some politicians do.

Let us remember how the transition to democracy took place in Eastern and Central Europe. One should be ready for such protests to begin in Belarus, to be ready to lead them and at the same time to negotiate with both the democratic West and clear-headed people in power about the inevitability of the coup d'Etat. To avoid the situation with those "advisors" for whom the collapse of the Soviet Union was a complete surprise. But for the people who fought in the Polish Solidarity or were participants of the Czechoslovak Charter-77, nothing was accidental. People had been fighting for years, and in the end they achieved the result. And the struggle of the Belarusian democratic forces is fair, logical and will inevitably lead to victory.

Once again, there are Russian, Eurasian, and European ways of development, and it depends largely, fortunately, on the geographical position of the country. If Belarus was in Latin America, there would be a Latin American or African model chosen by Lukashenka, but geography determines its laws. We are Europeans, we have European historical background and should just return to Europe. Yes, the transition will be challenging, will require maximum efforts, but I believe in our victory.

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