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Andrei Sannikov: Belarus, Ukraine Is Rubicon

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Andrei Sannikov: Belarus, Ukraine Is Rubicon

What is the danger of the new presidential term of Putin?

According to the official data, 56 million people "voted" for Vladimir Putin. It made 76%. A record-breaking result. Putin has never had such an outcome at elections. However, there's still something to strive for. Lidziya Yarmoshyna and Aliaksandr Lukashenka are doing their best, working for such or even better, results. We discussed these results, as well as what Belarus, Russia and the whole world should expect with Andrei Sannikov, the former Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus, ex-presidential candidate and leader of the European Belarus civil campaign, here in Belsat TV studio.

- In an interview to Charter97.org, you mentioned that a national tragedy, which cannot be called an election, took place in Russia. This is the continuation of the seizure of power by Putin and his regime. A mourning can be announced following such events. Why tragedy? Why mourning?

- There was no real election in Russia. Putin, who came to power again, to strengthen his regime using the aggression, the war with the West, the denial of the international law – this is a very dangerous path and not only us and the world but the Russians as well should not expect anything good as there will be no reforms, to moves in the economy.

- According to the ballots, most citizens were for Putin anyway.

- This is the most dangerous thing indeed. Because Putin and his policy have support. If I were in the shoes of the Western countries, I would demonstrate the videos how the Russians and the citizens of their countries voted outside Russia now.

- However, it doesn't seem a tragedy for the Russians, as they are screaming and shouting for Putin in euphoria, saying things like: "We are raising up, they started to look to us."

- That's what I am saying, this is scary, that for the Russians, for the supporters it is not a tragedy indeed. I agree that a considerable part, maybe even the majority of the population supports Putin, supports the aggressive policy in particular.

- Does it mean that those Russians who are ecstatically shouting for Putin, will be ready to go to occupy, attack and kill other people, citizens of other countries?

- I don't rule this out. Putin managed to lumpenize Russia. Even educated people can be called lumpens today, as they are guided exclusively by their instincts, by some imaginary "we are great", although they haven't even caught up with Portugal in terms of economic development.

True, this phenomenon is very dangerous. However, I would not speak about the support here in the context that, if Putin is supported, it means he is legitimate. No, he's illegitimate, because there is no election, because he killed his real rival Boris Nemtsov. Another rival, who was quite popular, Alexei Navalny - was excluded from the election process. How can you talk about elections after that? The propaganda works, the propaganda machine works both in Russia and in Belarus.

- Who can call themselves an opposition in today's Russia? As far as I understand from what you are saying, this is Navalny, who else?

- The opposition are those who oppose the regime.

- Given such approach, Kseniya Sobchak is also the opposition.

- Kseniya Sobchak is not the opposition. I said this in the above-mentioned interview for the Charter97.org, what the opposition should do to be considered the opposition, to plan something for the future. To come up with a statement that, regardless of discrepancies, we do not recognize the results of this "election", and there are many grounds for this. One Nemtsov is worth a lot.

- However, the West, although rather cautiously, will still most likely recognize the results of this "election" and will again shake hands with Vladimir Putin. Probably it requires more than just one opposition inside the country. There should be the international community as well.

- Yes, one opposition is not enough. Neither in Russia, nor in Belarus. This is obvious. Neither us, nor the Russian opposition should be reproached for this. We appeal to the West, to obtain support of their values in Russia, in Belarus. Because, without this we will not be able to oppose this regime. As for them shaking hands with the dictator, this is obvious. They perceive Дukashenka as a de facto state leader, although he is a dictator.

- Shouldn't there be some more radical steps? And when can they start happening? When the missiles fall on Warsaw, Berlin or Washington?

- No, they should start happening now, that's why I am saying that it is needed to demonstrate the video shots of how the Russians voted. There was an overwhelming turnout. About 90% supported Putin in Germany, France, England, everywhere.

- 83% voted for Putin in Belarus.

- In Belarus, it's the result of the Russian propaganda and the prevalence of this propaganda in our media sphere. But in the West, this is dangerous. That is why it's needed to take measures now.

- However, this means the propaganda hits the target. Although for an independent journalist it looks like thinly veiled clear propaganda, but it works, it brings the results, and we see them. What needs to be done?

- First, turn off the Russian channels, as Ukraine does now. And propaganda works, because this is no longer the propaganda, but a real informational war. And this war is not going on with the West, but with the population, and Belarus in particular.

We must demand to unblock Charter'97. Because when Charter was blocked, I believe that this added votes to Putin.

- Certainly this is one of the most popular resources, but do you think this is possible now? The authorities will agree and unblock Charter?

- They must do this. Because Lukashenka himself and his regime are in danger. He can be saved only with the help of the independent media, and only through the democratic opposition. Only when the process of negotiation between the regime and the democratic opposition starts, we can count on the appearance of certain guarantees of security for Lukashenka, and for our independence in the first place.

- As far as we understand, this is a step of negotiations at the round table between the opposition and Lukashenka? Such offer was voiced once.

- It's as you please. However, all the same, the regime has denied the existence of the opposition all the time, controls it, sends its agents, stirs disputes inside. How this will happen is a secondary thing. Without the independent opposition now standing in defense of the country, the real opposition to this regime, identified as a participant in the processes inside the country and as a participant in negotiations between Minsk and Brussels or Washington, without this I do not see the possibility of protecting independence.

- And whom do you see at this round table with Lukashenka?

- This is secondary. I see the real opposition. For example, the BNC, the Belarusian National Congress, which I trust and am its member. But not the fake opposition.

- And will Moscow allow these talks?

- Let's not ask what Moscow will allow and what it will not. Moscow will never allow anything.

- Will these negotiations cause in Belarus the same scenario which happened in the Crimea?

- The Crimean scenario seems most likely for Belarus. I am saying how to rescue us from such scenario. I talked with Refat Chubarov, I happened to meet him two days ago. Let's see, on which day the election was appointed? Right, on the day of the annexation of the Crimea. Where did Putin speak? Russia, Sevastopol, Crimea. This is such a crystal-clear message, such a comprehensible definition of the policy... I think this concerns Belarus in the first place.

- This concerns the whole democratic world as well. However, in such a situation the democratic world shows no reaction all the time, due to some reason.

- They began to react a little. We see that there were no congratulations from the West. Steinmeier can not be considered, this is a ceremonial function. And how to react? It would be best to turn off Europe from the Russian oil and gas. Second, to strengthen sanctions against the Russian capital in Europe. That is, remove this capital and its influence not only on business, but also on politics, analytics, strategy with Europe. Thirdly, to help our regions, especially Ukraine, in democratization and independence, to strengthen assistance to democratic forces and democratic processes in Belarus.

And this will save the West. If they understand this - something will start happening, if not - the consequences for the West will be more serious than for us.

- So, Belarus is the last Rubicon?

- Belarus, Ukraine - yes. Because Belarus and Ukraine are followed by Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and so on.

- Also some Belarusians say, here is a dangerous moment, that "let it better be Russia, there will be higher wages".

- First, they will not get higher wages. I once again return to my conversation with Chubarov. Let's see what happens in the Crimea. There's no good life, there's a criminal situation, nothing has improved there.

- Still, at the same time, more than 90% vote for Putin.

- Because they are now dependent on this criminal power. This is not voting. This is a demonstration of dependence. Unfortunately, the slavish dependence. The dependence on this power even in domestic matters.

- We, Belarusians, should also think about this. Thank you for this conversation. Our guest was Andrei Sannikov, ex-presidential candidate, and former Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus.

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