Lithuanian Expert: I Believe Large-Scale Protests May Start In Belarus

The Belarusian regime is biting the hand that feeds it.

Well-known Lithuanian political analyst Vytautas Bruveris said this in an interview for Charter97.org, commenting on the likelihood of a new "wave" of revolutions in the post-Soviet space.

"If large-scale protests begin in Belarus, which are no longer controlled by the authorities, it will be primarily a social protest. Even in Ukraine, the Maidan was at first a social protest against the totally impudent kleptocracy. I do not welcome the things being said about Belarus in Lithuania, when some say: "Forget about Belarusians, nothing will ever happen there, there is nothing to hope for." I do not agree with this.

I think that the Belarusian regime, like any other authoritarian kleptocratic regime, is successfully moving towards finally gnawing off the hand that feeds it. That is, it creates a situation when the most vulnerable segments of the society will come to the streets, those who suffer more than others from the ongoing processes. I think this process is underway. And it must be borne in mind that the revolution will be successful with the internal split of the elite. If this kleptocracy can be called this way. Above, certain processes, disintegration must occur, competition must start, a subterfuge, which would be reflected in street protests. Whether such processes are taking place at the top of the Belarusian authorities, I do not know yet. Here, probably, we need to ask questions to the secret services not only of Lithuania, but also of other countries. But we can not rule out that there may be a movement," - said Bruveris.

According to the expert, autocratic regimes "can collapse like a house of cards."

"I always very simply imagined the Eastern Partnership map. There are countries that are trying to move forward, and there are countries in the short term lost. Armenia, Belarus and Azerbaijan are the main ones in this regard. But you should not write off any country and declare any society hopeless in advance - this is another lesson. It turned out that autocratic regimes, although they might look strong and confident, may actually turn out to be card houses that have become rotten," - the expert believes.

Regarding the relations of the Belarusian dictatorship with the West, Vytautas Bruveris says that "the situation is nothing new in itself".

"Lukashenka always, sorry for the non-political term, applied the principle of "scamming the mugs". He always imitated something for the West. For example, that he is between two poles, so he tries to prove himself an independent player. There is nothing new in this. Putin is his real company, and cheats the West. Lukashenka again needs money very badly, but Russia needs to support other projects - Crimea, Donbas, Syria. And no matter how devoted Lukashenka is as a vassal, he can not be constantly fed. Therefore, he needs the money of the "rich West".