Yauhen Afnahel: Protests Against Retirement Age Increase May Cause ‘Domino Effect’

The situation in our region resembles interconnected vessels.

The Russian government decided to raise the retirement age. Almost immediately a petition of the All-Russian Union of Trade Unions with the demand to abolish the law was signed by more than a million people, and the first protests were held in some cities. The Belarusian authorities also intend to increase in the retirement age extraordinarily.

How will the situation develop taking into account the growth of social tension in both countries? One of the leaders of the Belarusian National Congress, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Yauhen Afnahel answers the questions of Charter97.org:

- The Russian regime, and the Belarusian one to an even greater extent, remain in the situation of the need for money. For Putin, a significant problem was Western sanctions, for Lukashenka - a reduction in financial revenues from Moscow. Both dictators are trying to find money within their countries.

The government in Russia raises the retirement age, in Belarus the government does the same plus introduces numerous new taxes and fees, finally empoverishing the people.

Contemporary history shows that "innovative" ways of taking money from the population work until people start protesting.

The Belarusian authorities saw this in 2017 and retreated. The Russian authorities, perhaps, will see mass protests this year.

It is essential to clearly understand: every time when taking unpopular measures, authoritarian regimes are afraid and try to find a fine line behind which a popular uprising can begin. The example of Russia shows that as soon as people openly become outraged, even if they just collect signatures under the petition of one of the unions - a slight panic begins in the corridors of power .

Therefore, the street is our best ally, and coming out to protest actions remains the only way to protect ourselves from robbery.

- If mass protests against raising the retirement age start in Russia, will this become a catalyst for discontent and street actions in Belarus?

- As the events of recent decades show, the situation in the countries of the former USSR, and even wider - in our region, resembles interconnected vessels.

For example, the Belarusian Square in 2010 had a strong influence on the protests in Russia and the Maidan in Ukraine. In turn, the Maidan in Ukraine seriously affected the situation in Russia and Belarus. Now many people are looking at the example of Armenia, where a classic non-violent revolution took place.

In any case, protests in one of the dictatorial countries of the former USSR always influence neighboring countries and can cause a "domino effect". Therefore, mass social actions in the Russian Federation may well lead to actions of civil disobedience in Belarus. And the more mistakes the authorities make, the more powerful these actions will be.