As soon as the power changes, Belarus Belarus will move westwards.
During the meeting in the Shklou district Lukashenka stated: "We are on the front. If we fail as the state in next few years, we will have to become the part of another country."
Coordinator of European Belarus civil campaign Zmitser Bandarenka told in the interview to Charter97.org.
- What do you think about the words of the person who calls himself "the guarantor of the Constitution"?
- Lukashenka has always been a political carpetbagger. We all know that as the Deputy of the Supreme Soviet he filed his candidacy as the head of the Belarusian People's Front.
Then he intended to capture, as Uladzimir Khalip wrote, "one shabby hat" in the Kremlin, but he failed with it too.
The person who has been ruining everything Belarusian during all his political life has become the head of an independent country by a twist of fate.
Some analysts and pseudo-analysts try to prove he is "smart", but it does not work: the man gives himself away. And even those who used to vote for him now can see his true nature.
-The statement was made after the meeting with Putin in Minsk. What could be said on the sidelines?
-By and large, it does not matter because Lukashenka has already committed so many crimes against the sovereignty of Belarus, that he is ready to go to anything to save his bacon.
For example, the surrender of the gas transportation system to Russia: if we know something about the second part of the "operation", the first part about the handing in of the pipeline and corresponding conditions are still veiled. Vast areas are rented by Russian oligarchs for many years. And we do not know rental conditions.
But the very fact that Lukashenka once abolished the article on damage to the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus is indicative. He understood that he himself and his gang were subject to this article. And the article with the punishment up to the death penalty was abolished.
Lukashenka does his best to please Putin, because he is completely dependent on him. On the other hand, he knows that any other government of Belarus will investigate his deeds, deeds of his "family" and inner circle. And all these activities imply at least long terms of imprisonment.
- Can Lukashenka sacrifice the sovereignty of Belarus not to be punished for his deeds?
- He can do it at any moment. Vladimir Putin is the person who decides his fate, and he is a more powerful dictator who is aware of the strategic and transit meaning of Belarus. But Putin also knows that millions of Belarusians who love their motherland, unlike Lukashenka, will defend their land.
Putin has long replaced Lukashenka with someone else, but he fears a certain destabilization in Belarus. It will cause the collapse of the entire system and it will launch domino effect damaging Russia. The information space is interrelated: on the one hand, Russia's propaganda influences Belarus; on the other hand, Belarusian events can change minds of Russians.
For example, Belarus and Russia suffer common phenomena: economic and demographic crisis, corruption, nepotism, stealing. If someone says that Lukashenka is a "guarantor" then Putin is the guarantor of political survival of Lukashenka. And the Belarusian ruler is well aware of it.
- Nevertheless, as you say, Putin can replace him at any moment. Do you think a successor already exists or it is rather the outside possibility?
-The situation is that Putin may think that he can replace Lukashenka. Lukashenka is the same Plotnitsky (LPR's leader) to him, who, they say, disappeared and was even jailed. And the same leader of Trans-Dniester Smirnov, who was also once replaced.
But unlike these pseudo-sates, Belarus is a real state. And it's not an empty sound that the BSSR was the founder of the UN, though only formally. The international community will respond to real Putin's attempts to intervene in the situation in Belarus. And new sanctions will be certainly imposed against Russia.
Putin is annoyed by Lukashenka's foolishness, his greed, his inability to dispose of great cash flows. At the same time the Russian ruler understands as soon as Lukashenka is replaced, Belarus will make its way westwards. This is the stalemate for Putin.
There is the will of the Belarusian people. It can be said that Belarusians are still dreaming and to some extent are not ready to claim responsibility. As soonas the system collapses, new people will rise. Belarus will become unconditionally independent state, as it happened to Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.
- Do you think that processes dreaming in the Belarusian society will become the decisive factor in preservation of independence?
- Yes, of course. Ukraine proves that people who seemed just tried to survive during Yanukovich's times: many of them left the country, a great corruption existed, laws were neglected. But when it came to the existence of Ukraine as a state, thousands heroes appeared and go to the front to defend their homeland, as well as volunteers who defended their armies and helped to create it anew.
Belarusians still hesitate to manifest themselves as citizens. There is an active part which involves dozens and hundreds of thousands of people who protested in different times. These are millions of people who voted for the leaders of the Belarusian opposition.
And these people will speak up at the right moment.
This protracted stay Lukashenka in power is explained with some Russianization and closer ties with Russia.
This is the reason of insufficient activity of the Belarusian nation. But this is the fact that this nation exists. Lukashenkas come and go, Belarus remains, Belarus exists.