Rzeczpospolita: Is Russia Getting Ready To Swallow Belarus?

Moscow requires Minsk to accept closer integration within the "Union State".

"We are on the front. If we do not take a stand in the coming years, we will collapse. It means that it will be needed to become the part of another state, otherwise, we will be thumbed nose at," Lukashenka stated several days after the talk with Vladimir Putin, Polish Rzeczpospolita writes.

Politicans met in Minsk to mark anniversary of creation of the "Union State of Russia and Belarus". Soon Lukashenka is going to Sochi, where, according to Russian sources, he is awaiting a "tough talk". Official statements of Minsk say that the Russian president "wants to discuss the cooperation of Russia and Belarus in details". Everything indicates that bilateral relations between two countries are to face drastic changes.

Analysts close to the Kremlin made details of the Minsk meeting public. "Lukashenka told about economic problems. He asked Russia to fund a part of an external debt of Belarus. Putin agrees only in case of specific steps towards further integration withing the "Union State" and in case if Belarus supports these steps", professor Andrei Suzdaltsev, Moscow Higher School of Economics, informed Rzeczpospolita. According to the expert, who is the member of a special group in the Council of Federation, Putin wants to hear thoughts of Lukashenka upon the further integration.

Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes that relations between Moscow and Minsk will be more pragmatic. The editorial recalls that over the past few years Russia significantly cut oil supplies to Belarus, which drastically influenced the local economy. For many years the refinery of cheap Russian oil and its further selling to the West has been one of the major incomes of the country.

The "Union State" was established in the Kremlin, April of 1997. Then former president of Russia Boris Yeltsin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed the agreement. Russian and Belarusian analysts analysts believe that Lukashenka signed the document in hope that he would take place of the Russian leader as soon as he retires. Then the Belarusian ruler signed the statement of intent to impose common state symbols, common currency, common judicial system, and common parliament and government. It would mean a complete integration of Belarus. Integration has slowed down, when Putin came to the Kremlin.

The "Union State" will continue. Moscow is silent about it, but the work upon it continues. However, I cannot tell any details. It's hard to talk to Lukashenka, he blocks many things," chairman of the pro-Kremlin Centre of Political Information Alexei Mukhin informed Rzeczpospolita.

The completion of work of Russian Ambassador Alexander Surikov is symbolic amid speculations in Russia-Belarus relations.

Several days ago he offered Belarus to let Russian frontier guards so that they could operate on the border with the EU countries. According to him, it can contribute to blocking of "smuggling" to Russia, which Belarus has been blamed for by Moscow. The Russian Ambassador also stated that Belarus should sell Russia its gas transmission systems. It would allegedly allow Belarus to buy gas at the price fixed in Russia. However, it would have meant an inevitable monopoly of Gazprom in the country, because Lukashenka has already sold the Russian company all Belarusian gas transmission networks.

Instead of Surikov, Mikhail Babich with ties in the Russian special services should arrive in Minsk. He is often called "Putin's envoy for special operations". By the order of the Kremlin, he headed the government of Chechnya in 2002-2003. Later he served as the member of the Security Council of Russia and actively supported annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea. Moscow wanted to appoint him as the ambassador in Kyiv, but Ukraine rejected his candidature.

"He will reach at deployment of a permanent military base in Belarus, which Lukashenka rejected in 2015. Russia cannot accept it. It does everything possible to make Belarus as much dependent as possible, and deprive it of any space for a maneuver," Belarusian political scientist Pavel Usov thinks.