Hundreds Of Thousands Of Belarusians To Become Jobless?

The economy is entering the more acute phase of a crisis.

Workers of Mogilev Strommashina plant will work one hour a day. Working hours last from 7 to 8 am; the payments "equals to working hours". The corresponding notification was sent out by the personnel department the other day. Those who disagree with a new "schedule" are fired.

Is this a tendency or an isolated case? If it's the tendency, what consequences can it bear?

Representative of the Belarusian National Congress in Brest Andrei Sharenda answers questions of Charter97.org.

- This case is typical for all regional centers. Our one of the leading enterprises Brestgazapparat survives, as they say, paycheck to paycheck. If there are few orders, people work 3, 2 or even one day a week. And we are talking about the leading regional enterprise!

Then you can imagine the situation in Baranavichy, Pinsk... As far as I know people there are sent on unpaid leave in summer.

This is a common situation for all Belarusian regions. This collapse has affected the entire country.

- How do people with families react to these forced "vacations" and idle days?

- People start looking for additional variants. They turn to "pasture forage"; it's summer and they pick berries and mushrooms. However, other regions use trail cameras and levy fines.

There are more extraordinary cases in Brest - people left for Ukraine to register imported EU vehicles. They raised $20-30 and then got huge fines.

But it is not the main problem. The attitude towards the authorities has changed. No Lukashenka's electorate he had in the 90s has remained. The authorities have completely failed with the so-called "social contract"; it does not exist at all. It means that people who do not care about politics consider this power illegitimate.

- What are specific phenomena which cause major indignation?

- It's a social stratification. People are outraged with the gap between the new class - officials and other Lukashenka's people - and ordinary citizens.

Houses and palaces are built while many people, especially those with large families and pensioners, literally save on food. Before long, slogan "Peace to the shacks! War on the palaces!" will be popular again.

Still I can observe silent but general indignation. However, at any moment it can turn into food riots of the unemployed. No matter what official brief says about plenty of job places in Belarus; there is the hard reality. People work for penny now, this is the truth. It's especially indicative in districts.

- Can the social situation heat up in the near future?

- Now we can observe the collapse of the Russian ruble and its stock market caused by new American sanctions. It's likely that the Russian economy is entering the more acute phase of the crisis. The Belarusian economy will follow it into footsteps, because it has been tied to it for 24-year policy line. The Belarusian ruble is already depreciating against dollar, and in the course of time can outrun the collapse of the Russian one.

The situation with Belarusian enterprises is even riskier. They are almost all bound to the Russian market. The depreciation of ruble will cause non-competitiveness of our goods and replace our goods with cheaper Russian ones. Moreover, Russian goods are likely to flood the Belarusian market. And then we will finally face 1-day work week across the country. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians will become jobless.

- Will the authorities be able to keep the situation under control?

- You know, one should have some influence to control processes during the acute social and economic crisis.

In this regard, the situation with Lukashenka's "stroke" is indicative. As soon as first rumors appeared, it became clear no sympathy was expected. On the contrary, it's a rare scene to see such a mix of joy and hope in our town. People searched news in confirmation of one phrase: "Finally, it's happened".

As soon as Lukashenka appeared on TV screens again, it caused a hail of doubts whether it was him. People wanted to believe to the bitter end that they were presented a double.

It means no respect has remained towards the ruler. Belarusians have given up on him and are waiting for him to resign.

Lukashenka is still trying to reach the departing train risking to fall down on rails, but no one listens to his cries and takes him seriously. Conductor are busy with their stuff, doors of carriages are closed, people are smoking on platforms being concerned about salaries. There is no place left for the person who has recently behaved like the "chef de train".