Russia is working on the rapid deployment of missile systems in our country.
On June 22, Inform Napalm reported that units, weapons and military equipment of the Western Military District (WMD) of the Russian Armed Forces had entered the territory of Belarus.
According to the official reports of defense agencies, the Russian military is supposed to take part in the parade in Minsk on July 3. However, the transfer was recorded in Vorsha in the evening of June 20. The activists photocopied the armored personnel carriers BTR-82A of the aggressor state near the Vorsha railway station.
What does this mean for our country and what are the consequences? The Charter97.org website asked Dzianis Ivashyn, editor of the Belarusian service of the international volunteer community InformNapalm, for a comment.
- How would you comment on such a large-scale transfer of Russian military equipment to Belarus? Will it really be withdrawn after the parade?
- The large-scale redeployment of Russian military equipment to Belarus may represent a practical exercise of the operational deployment of Russian military equipment from the permanent deployment points to the designated area on the territory of our country.
In a certain sense, this can be perceived as an element of offensive actions. Of course, the greatest threat to the neighbors of Belarus is posed by the units of the 112th missile brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, which is armed with the Iskander operational-tactical missile complexes.
It was these systems that were transferred to Belarus under the guise of participation in the parade on July 3 as mechanized detachments. The transfer of Iskanders almost half a month before the parade date may indicate that units of the 112th missile brigade were training other military tasks, first of all, deploying missile systems in the combat order and equipping the starting positions, as well as carrying out electronic single and group launches on military targets of the potential enemy from the territory of Belarus.
It is quite possible that after the parade on July 3, the Iskanders will return to its permanent locations. Now we are not talking about the deployment of these complexes together with technical personnel and regular weapons on the territory of Belarus. The withdrawal of these missile systems from Belarus is monitored by military reconnaissance satellites of the NATO block, as it concerns the control over the balance of forces in one of the key regions of Europe.
- Does the Russian balcony from the north continue to be a potentially dangerous territory for Ukraine?
- Undoubtedly. Belarus participates in every conceivable military alliance with Russia. The Belarusian armed forces, together with the 20th Allied Army of the Russian Federation, are part of the Unified Regional Grouping of Troops, and there is the Unified Regional Air Defense System of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Let's do not forget about the CSTO as well.
In 2014, during the active phase of combat operations in Donbas, a Russian fighter air squadron was deployed at Belarusian air bases, which was aimed at strategic targets in Ukraine with the help of long-range radar detection and control aircraft A-50.
The joint strategic exercise West 2017 demonstrated that Russia needs Belarus, first of all, as a buffer territory for conducting possible military operations with NATO countries and Ukraine. At the same time, during these exercises, the Belarusian armed forces proved themselves as mouthpiece of the will and implementers of the interests of the Russian Federation. The logical continuation was that Belarus and Russia approved the Military Doctrine of the "Union State" at the end of 2018.
- How would you comment on the decision of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to form two additional brigades on the border with Belarus?
- The senior military and political leadership of Belarus is actively involved in negotiations with Russia, aimed at boosting the full deployment of the so-called "union state".
This activity is provided by the huge macroeconomic pressure of Russia, which leaves no chance for Lukashenka's regime to escape from the trap of the Russian state protectorate, which he created.
The parade in Minsk on July 3 with the participation of the aggressor state's army with offensive missile weapons capable of carrying a nuclear warhead is a vivid proof of Russia's dominance over Belarus. These actions undermine the status of Belarus "as a donor of interregional security and a negotiating platform".
Ukraine understands all this very well and the formation of new units of the Armed Forces (first of all, the new 61st Independent Infantry Brigade in Zhytomyr region and the formation of the 12th Independent Tank Battalion in Chernigov region, their equipping with weapons and military machinery) is a forced step.
In addition to providing a significant grouping of forces near the front line in the East and occupied Crimea, Ukraine is forced to spend huge sums of money on maintaining the army corps in the north of the country because of the military alliance between Belarus and Russia. Obviously, this is a very heavy burden for its economy.