Minsk-Moscow: Transit Of Power, Or Do We FaceWar For Belarus?

For Putin, Lukashenka is a monkey-boy.

There is a reality - and there is a Belarusian politics.

The reality is as follows: Belarusians, who understand the danger that threatens the country, collect signatures for withdrawing from the treaty “On the Union State”, and the head of the Republic of Belarus is in talks with the head of the Russian Federation to deepen integration to the depth that would satisfy Russia’s leader. To such a depth at which Belarus and Russia will merge into one state.

“Russia does not encroach on our independence! Putin is my friend! ”- Belarusian politician Lukashenka calms down Belarusians.

“Why does Putin need Belarus if it is not economically profitable?” It is more profitable for Russia to have an ally country in the west than the province of the Russian Federation, so we do not face the loss of independence,” all sorts of (and not only those near the feedbox) Croon-Cats sing along. They are told from Russia (as editor of Moscow Echo radio A. Venediktov, who is experienced in the Russian politics, in its Kremlin backstage, said): “We must understand that the Russian elite believes that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are one people . It should be understood that no one has abandoned this idea, that this is not just Putin’s whim, but the opinion of the majority of the Russian elite, so the story of “deep integration” has accelerated,” but they don’t want to hear that. Why? After all, they do not care if Belarus will exist or not! They have their own “supranational” interests.

I do not say that they do not like Belarus. Perhaps love. Why not love it? But they are not hurt.

It hurts me. Unbearably. Belarus flows in my blood, its language, history and culture, severely, almost lethally, wounded. And through this pain, I know what awaits us, more than all the Croon-Cats of Lukashenka combined.

We are facing the war for Belarus. The war of survival. It is already underway - and even the date of signing the terms of surrender in this war has been set: June 21. The day before the start of the war, which was called the Great Patriotic War. And on June 20, the head of the Russian Federation appointed a “direct line”. This direct psychological pressure is part of a hybrid war.

All this could be considered accidental, but not in the current situation. It generally resembles the pre-war situation of 1941. After the signing of the non-aggression pact (“union treaty”) between the USSR and Germany, Soviet propaganda convinced the Soviet people for two years that Stalin and Hitler were friends. On June 21, the Germans are already in Brest, in the morning of June 22 they shoot, and Stalin said that this was not a war, but a provocation. By the way, in order to avoid war, to remain in the Kremlin, and not to end up outside the Urals, where his “friend” was going to move him along with the USSR, Stalin tried to buy off. He suggested that Hitler take away Ukraine, the Baltic States, Bessarabia, Bukovina, Karelia ... “The Friend” did not like this proposal - and in the winter of 1941 the German troops were near Moscow.

Why, when the USSR had the largest army in the world, which had enough tanks, airplanes, guns? .. Because the people, lulled by songs of friendship and brotherhood, were not ready to resist.

Why wasn’t Hitler satisfied with the territory of Ukraine, which Stalin gave him without war? Because in addition to the territories, Hitler still needed a monument. As a hero, as a warrior who revived the empire, as the liberator of Europe from communism - and in the end, as a messiah. This is he how saw his historical role.

Putin started a war with Ukraine not only because he needed Crimea. Moreover: he does not need the Crimea at all. Neither is Belarus needed. He needs a monument. Putin has everything else.

Monuments are manifestations of the mental illness of power. And the curse of the people, on whose blood they appear.

At the very beginning of his presidency, Putin offered Belarusians to join the Russian Federation voluntarily (either fully or through provinces), now - through pressure. He never retreated from this policy, and if in the beginning it was associated only with imperial ambitions, it is now also with personal interest. With a monument to the collector of the “native Russian lands”, scattered through an annoying historical occasion, to the hero, the bogatyr who revived the empire. From this combination of great-power and personal, the current threat to our independence follows.

This is what we should realize, this is what we should proceed from if we want to protect Belarus, to defend it as a sovereign state.

There is another reason why Putin will seek the accession of Belarus to the Russian Federation. This is a problem of the presidential elections of 2024, in which, according to the Constitution, the current head of the Russian Federation cannot participate. Many people claim (as the same editor-in-chief of Moscow Echo radio A. Venediktov) that Putin can maintain power more easily without the “union state”. He can change the Constitution, as Lukashenka once did.

Yes maybe. But he will not do this. And just because Lukashenka did it.

The last thesis could not be clarified, but I will clarify. One can not ignore the nature of Putin, his psychology. He is a man of “concepts”. He, if we use the terminology of the criminal world, in which both the Russian and Belarusian authorities live today, is a “godfather”. For him, Lukashenka, under the same criminal terminology, is a “digger”. If not a “goat” or a “monkey boy”. And the godfather cannot act in the same ways, play the same marked cards that the “monkey boy” did. He has his own pattern on the back of playing cards. Imperial, not parochial. And today this pattern is a “union state”. With the signature of Lukashenka under the agreement on the creation of such a state.

This is where the real political game is. And not only, not even with Lukashenka, but with the West.

The “2024” problem is not only a Putin problem. This (which is very important) is the problem of his entire oligarchy, who need to keep grabbing, to hide themselves from a possible Russian revolt, “blind and merciless.” So the “union state” seems the best veil. The “voluntarily” annexed Belarus is not even the same as the annexed Crimea. Imagine how high - with salutes and victorious marches - the spirit of the “Russian world” will rise again!

Does this spirit materialize in huge expenses, in economic losses? Yes. But who in Russia, for the sake of “Minsknash!”, will pay attention to the economy? Moreover, so much money has already been pumped in this investment project. A billion less, a billion more. The Crimean bridge.

The talks about changes in the Constitution, or even about the new Constitution, started by Lukashenka, are a step along the “Crimean” bridge. Any changes to the Constitution mean a referendum, and we have the results of three previous referenda. Because of them, there is no full-fledged parliament, no independent court, no national symbols, no Belarusian language - now Belarus may cease to exist. And if Croon-Cats tell me that the new Constitution is a step towards a smooth “transit” of power, I almost agree with them. Yes, smooth. Yes, transit. But not from authoritarianism to democracy, but from Minsk to Moscow.

Once Lukashenka dreamed of becoming president in Moscow. Now - in transit - he can become a vice president. Or the prime minister. But beyond the Urals - and then not for long. So, apparently, the question is: to be or not to be? That's what was the result of his “cunning” policy, because of which he put Belarus before the question of to be or not to be.

What should he do to choose the “to be” option? Offer territory? .. This is the “over-Urals” variant. The other, so that there was Belarus, is to quit playing the “only guarantor”, the “leader”, who decides everything for everyone. To stop the games of mystery, secrecy, to openly tell the public about what is actually happening, in order to bring the country out of lethargic sleep, so that the people are ready to resist. If he is scared to do this himself, he should not interfere with those who are not afraid, allowing all active members of the society to the elections: parliamentary and presidential. If a decision is made to change the Constitution, then today it is necessary to explain: how, in what and for what? - and bring it to a national discussion ... And if he wants a monument, he must remember that there are different monuments. To some flowers are laid, and some are demolished, and people curse those to whom they were erected.

Uladzimir Niakliayeu, Facebook