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Why Does Lukashenka Go To Valaam?

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Why Does Lukashenka Go To Valaam?
PHOTO: COMMERSANT

The dictator seems to be hoping for a “miracle”.

The rulers of Belarus and Russia have two meetings scheduled for the near future. At least during one of them negotiations on deepening integration should take place. However, in Minsk they say that there is nothing to talk about: strategic issues are not worked out, tactical issues are not resolved, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Journalists learned about the upcoming meeting in Valaam from unofficial sources earlier this week. Lukashenka confirmed these intentions on July 9. “We don’t intend to decide anything secretly in Valaam,” he said, reacting to experts' reproaches about preparing some secret talks about the fate of Belarus and the “union state” that would allegedly be held on the island of Valaam. According to him, the president of Russia offered to just go see the “Orthodox shrine”.

“I just have to go there. I am grateful to him (Vladimir Putin. - “NG”) that he will personally show it to me and tell how they are restoring it, how everything functions there (in Valaam - “NG”). Nothing secret,” Lukashenka said as he met with the state secretary of the “union state” Grigory Rapota in Minsk.

He also recalled that another meeting would take place soon after. The rulers will meet on July 17-18 in St. Petersburg during the Forum of Regions. This is where, according to the Belarusian dictator, business negotiations should take place. However, even to this date, he still does not see any business agenda.

The intergovernmental working group that was established at the ministerial level has not prepared anything, Lukashenka said. “So many negotiations have already passed, and they are reporting to me today ... Some promises. The negotiating group ran into some kind of a problem - the Russian government, including Prime Minister Medvedev, promises to give all relevant commands, orders, to solve issues in a complex. It’s just, some sort of negotiation tactics has been formed: they promised - they forgot, they promised again - and once again they forgot. That is, there is an incomprehensible inhibition of these processes,” lamented Lukashenka.

In this regard, he asked Grigoriy Rapota to personally oversee this issue so that the rulers at least had something to talk about. Lukashenka doesn’t want to “just to meet and sit in front of each other, without saying anything”. According to him, “the time for such meetings has long gone”.

Moreover, in the opinion of the Belarusian ruler, which he spoke about earlier, before solving the issues of strategic partnership within the framework of the “union state”, it is necessary to solve the tactical issues of bilateral relations, “which we have a lot with Russia”. “We agreed that while solving strategic issues, we will simultaneously solve tactical issues that are on the surface and cry out,” he said.

“For example, today about 80 our enterprises have been closed by the Rosselkhoznadzor or some kind of authority in Russia, and maybe even the government. Most likely the government,” Lukashenka reminded. And this was done “under a false pretext,” he said. Also, the issue of industrial cooperation of Russian and Belarusian enterprises is not resolved, there is no equal access to government procurement in the Allied countries, and the tax maneuver conducted does violate all agreements, including within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, and “it should not be like this”, Lukashenka listed the “tactical problems”.

“The deadlines for negotiations on the supply of natural gas and oil for the future have already expired. A lot of questions that are not being solved,” he lamented. The ruler of Belarus is convinced that “without solving these questions there is nothing to talk about,” and as long as they remain unattended, there can be no talk of “a common currency and the merge or unification of the states”.

However, politically active public and experts do not share Lukashenka’s opinion. What Lukashenka believes is the reason for the lack of a business agenda, the experts think is precisely the reason for the secret negotiations. Experts are convinced that the frequency (four times in the last month) and the ineffectiveness of the negotiations between the rulers of the two states indicate that their positions do not converge and everyone remains with his opinion. Russia insists on “deepening integration”, which, in Moscow’s understanding, means the actual merge of Belarus into Russia while maintaining the external attributes of independence. Minsk does not agree to this, but is not ready to abandon the “material allowance” of an ally, to which it had become accustomed during the 25 years of Lukashenka’s rule, who made a bet on Russian subsidies.

“Lukashenka will beg, try to soft-talk Putin to ease the pressure,” political analyst Pavel Usau predicts the agenda for the meeting of presidents on Valaam Island.

“Instead of solving internal problems, modernizing the economy, taking it out of the dependence on Russia, Lukashenka prefers to visit monasteries and hope for a miracle,” the expert stated. By the way, in his opinion, the very fact of the meeting on Valaam demonstrates the decline in the status of the meetings between Putin and Lukashenka. “They no longer want to accept him either in the Kremlin or in Bocharov Ruchey, but they are taking him practically to the taiga,” said Pavel Usau.

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