World Bank Confirms Slowdown Forecast For Belarus

Economists believe that Minsk will not receive compensation for the tax maneuver.

The World Bank has confirmed its downgraded in November last year forecast for the economy of Belarus in 2020-2021, Interfax informs.

In 2020, Belarus' GDP growth is expected at 0.9%, while in 2021 - a slowdown to 0.5%, according to the January economic report of the World Bank "Global Economic Outlook," published on Thursday. Compared with the June forecast, the dynamics of GDP growth in Belarus in 2020 and 2021 are reduced by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively.

According to the WB estimates, in 2022, the positive dynamics of GDP growth in Belarus will remain at the level of 0.5%.

According to the results of 2019, the WB expects the GDP growth in Belarus at 1%.

As previously reported, the World Bank provided the corresponding estimates of the GDP forecast for Belarus in November 2019.

The revision has been carried out "against the background of the expected deterioration of external conditions, limited opportunities to stimulate demand, as well as uncertainty about the Belarusian-Russian negotiations on further economic integration and bilateral financial support," - the WB explained.

As noted by the World Bank economist, Kirill Gaiduk, at a press conference in November, the bank's mid-year forecast was based on the assumption that "there will be some compensation, say, around 50% of potential losses of Belarus from the tax maneuver". "Now we see that the situation is very uncertain, so our (new - note) forecast is based on the fact that no compensation is expected yet," - he added.