Political Observer: Minsk Uses Bluff, Blackmail In ‘Oil War’

Things may simply not reach termination of transit of the Russian oil.

The statements by the Belarusian side on the “repair” of the pipeline are part of the economic confrontation between Belarus and Russia.

Political observer Valer Karbalevich said this in an express comment to Solidarity.

“This is pressure from Belarus and, one could even say, blackmail,” he noted. “The Belarusian government uses the weapons that it has in its hands: the factor of a transit state through which Russian oil flows to Europe.

And we see that this is not the only pinprick.

This is also the environmental tax that the West Transnefteproduct Russian company will have to pay. There are stubborn negotiations on increasing the transit tariff, which the Belarusian side is conducting. And the talks that Belarus is looking for alternative sources of oil.

According to the political scientist, all these actions of the Belarusian side contain elements of bluffing and blackmail in order to put pressure on Russia.

- This is a war by all the rules, during which both real and informational factors are used. There is a full-fledged war, - the political scientist warns.

Answering the question of what consequences should be expected in the situation if oil transit through the Druzhba oil pipeline is stopped, the expert emphasizes:

- For Russia it will be painful, but it will be painful for Belarus too. The Belarusian authorities had already tried such methods earlier, in early 2007, when a strange customs duty was imposed on the transit of the Russian oil, not provided for by any agreements.

And after Russia refused to pay it, Belarus began to take oil from the pipe. As a result, the Russians stopped transit for several days.

But then Belarus had nothing to lose, since then the country was in sharp conflict with Europe. And now the authorities are trying to create the image of Belarus as a factor of stability in the region, a security donor ... Well, the termination of the transit of Russian oil to Europe destroys the image. This is a blow to the European consumers, too.

So the Belarusian side will use these weapons very carefully. Therefore, they say, repairs can suspend the transit of oil supplies or reduce them. That is, the wordings are very cautious.