Aliaksandr Klaskouski: They Took Lukashenka By Throat

And the question here is not a 10 dollar bonus.

Moscow-based Kommersant revealed an open secret: the tough stance of the large Russian oil companies regarding supplies to Belarus is connected “with the instructions of the Russian leadership”. In other words, the Kremlin is behind the current oil crisis, as a result of which two Belarusian oil refineries choke out.

Someone will say: is it worth it to trust any information leak from the Moscow media? So, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak the other day with an innocent look told the press that the Russian government does not regulate oil prices for Belarus, the oil industry operates under market conditions.

Yes, but why then did Aliaksandr Lukashenka, for the whole December, both in person and by telephone, try to solve energy issues precisely with Vladimir Putin? Moreover, this agenda was confirmed by the press-centers of both presidents. In plain text, it was reported that relevant instructions were given to the governments. Is Kozak not aware of the instructions from the Kremlin?

Coercion to integration continues

Such is the specificity of the relations of sworn allies that between them there are practically no purely economic disputes, you always need to look for a poisonous admixture of politics.

The current oil conflict is no exception. According to a Kommersant source, “Moscow sees no reason to make concessions to Minsk, given that the countries cannot resolve the contradictions regarding roadmaps for integrating the economies of the two states.”

Yes, formally, it is the Belarusian side that disagrees to buy oil with the payment of a premium of around $ 10 per ton to the Russian oil companies. But the fact is that Lukashenka feels cheated, and is trying to somehow reduce the additional costs.

After all, the statement that the Russian oil companies are ready to supply oil under the market conditions of 2019 formally sounds correct, but in essence it is mocking. Because oil automatically rises in price by about $ 20 per ton as a result of a tax maneuver, which Moscow agrees to pay compensation for only if the tax laws of the two countries are unified.

Simply put, Lukashenka is forced to sign a package of roadmaps for “in-depth integration”, the implementation of which, according to independent experts, will deprive Belarus of at least part of its financial and economic sovereignty. And you say: a dispute between business entities.

Surrender, or ...

And one more stroke: Kommersant notes that since Russia does not want to bring the situation to a full-fledged crisis, Mikhail Gutseriev’s companies are allowed to supply oil to Belarus.

By the way, although he is a friend of Lukashenka, he is nevertheless a businessman and would hardly begin to supply oil at a loss. This means that other Russian oil companies would not go broke if they refused the bonus. Which is doubtful for at least two reasons. Firstly, because it was established at a time when oil was almost twice as expensive. Secondly, because the quality of the Russian oil in the recent years has fallen dramatically.

By controlling the behavior of its oil companies, the Kremlin is trying to arrange a controlled crisis for the ally. Gutseriev’s two companies intend to deliver 750 thousand tons of oil in January, which will allow the Belarusian refineries to work half-heartedly, to secure the domestic market. But the export of petroleum products - one of the main sources of replenishment of the budget - has been suspended.

That is, Lukashenka was seriously taken by the throat right on the eve of the presidential campaign. And the question here is not the 10 dollar bonus. The question is whether the Belarusian leadership will surrender to the mercy of Moscow, whether it will go for the “in-depth integration”.

Every alley is a dead end

Lukashenka is well aware of the smell of signing roadmaps on Kremlin terms (especially if they squeeze out the 31st, which includes a single currency and supranational bodies). It is not without reason that he insists that “we walk and stagger left and right. God forbid, an inaccurate, wrong step - and we will lose everything ”(yes, an inspiring description of the achievements of our quarter-century rule and the notorious Belarusian stability).

It is clear that, according to the Belarusian leader, the cynical Russian leadership is to blame for this, who, when setting energy prices, does not take into account the fact of joint decay in the trenches of the Great Patriotic War. The fact that the longstanding one-sided orientation of the regime towards Russia led to the current desperate situation is diligently obscured.

But be that as it may, Moscow does not believe in tears. What could be Minsk’s serious response to its prudent energy pressure?

Minsk cannot unilaterally raise the tariff for pumping Russian oil; in this sense, it is bound by clearly defined agreements with Moscow.

Alternative oil supplies? Yes, before the New Year, Lukashenka gave such an order, but so far no one has heard about them. Polish expert Wojciech Jakubik told Belsat:

“For regular commercial deliveries from Poland to Belarus, we need to build infrastructure. As far as we know, heard from the Polish oil operator, from the official Belarusian side there is no interest in this. ”

That is, it is entirely possible that Minsk is only trying to scare Moscow rhetorically in this regard. The same as with the hints that it could stop the transit of the Russian oil through Belarus. Such an aggravation of the situation is too risky for Lukashenka: he can run into not cold calculations, but the Kremlin’s anger with all the ensuing consequences.

It is all the more risky to get out of the alliance agreements, the defense alliance, etc. These are the red lines, the crossing of which may lead to the Ukrainian scenario in Belarus.

Mice cried, got stung...

What is the bottom line? No matter how the official leader tries to justify himself, today it is clear not only to political scientists, but also to the average layman that the “Old Man” has lost the long-term integration game to the Kremlin.

In essence, this is political bankruptcy. And it would surely have had consequences if elections were held in Belarus. However, this year only another special operation will take place to formalize the new term of Lukashenka’s reign.

In addition, he is by no means Peter I (although he tried to compare himself with him) and not Lee Kuan Yu. That is, Belarusians will not see the reforms under the patronage of a strong hand that can weaken the dependence on Russia. What Lukashenka himself confirmed at today's meeting, saying that “the principles of the state economic policy that we have been forming for years will remain unchanged.”

In short, the mice cried, got stung, but continued eating the cactus.

Aliaksandr Klaskouski, belsat.eu