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Leu Marholin: Belarusian Oil Refineries May Stop Working

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Leu Marholin: Belarusian Oil Refineries May Stop Working
Leu Marholin

This appears a very bad situation for a country with an unreformed economy.

Economist Leu Marholin has told how yet another conflict in the Belarus-Russia relations may end.

Since January 1, 2020, Russia has stopped the supplies of oil to the Belarusian refineries, as informed by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti with a reference to own source in the oil-refining industry of Belarus. Also, the absence of shipments has been reported by Interfax with a reference to the Belarusian side. According to some information, the stock of raw materials at the Belarusian oil refineries will be enough for approximately 20 days of work.

- I believe that the suspension of shipment of oil to Belarus is a big technical problem. It is clear that the Belarusian ruler tried to convince Vladimir Putin to agree on the oil and gas prices by the end of the year, but, apparently, he failed. After that, Aliaksandr Lukashenka probably gave the order to elaborate alternative options of delivery of oil to the country. Perhaps, the Kremlin decided to teach the official Minsk a lesson, and gave a signal to show who’s the boss, - the expert said.

- How can this situation resolve?

- I don’t think this is going to be a long-lasting conflict, they will find compromise soon, and solve the oil issue. But I think this will happen more on the Russian terms, not Belarusian.

- What threatens the Belarusian oil refineries?

- Nothing so far, as there is a stock of raw materials, and the refineries continue working. They hope that the raw materials issue will be resolved soon. The Belarusian ruler is right when he says it’s necessary and possible to find other sources of oil supplies, even at higher prices. But still, the logistics issues that will surface anyway cannot be solved in several days. So, if the situation does not resolve, it is possible that the Belarusian oil refineries might stop working for some time.

- Is it lethal for Belarus if it purchases oil and gas at the world prices?

- Of course, it’s not lethal, but when we speak about some abstract Belarus. But for a country with an unreformed economy, this is a very bad situation.

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