The Failure Of ‘Oil Emirate’

The power vertical behaved as if Russia would always be running its errands.

Experts at the Strategy analytical center summed up the results of the socio-economic development of Belarus in 2019, Brestskaya Gazeta reports.

“The 2019th year was a sluggish, boring copy of the previous years of the five-year period #5, 2016-2020. According to the theoretical platform, the content of the economic policy, and the decision-making system, the past year was no different from the typical year of any five-year period,” this is the result of the socio-economic development of Belarus in 2019, according to the Strategy analytical center.

According to experts, the politicians and officials bossing about somebody else’s property pretended that their work improves the ticket quota system. Lukashenka pretended to believe this, allowing himself the typical rhetorics of “in the harshest possible way”, “stop the foolishness”, “slackness”, “mess”, and “handcuff them without trial.” The officials sleepily and lazily wrote all this down, without fear on the face, without enthusiasm in the eyes, without creativity in the plans. Therefore, their decisions were filled with normative nonsense such as “improve”, “stimulate”, “accelerate”, “consolidate” or “ensure sustainability”.

The country's economy lived its own life, and the government in the broad sense of the word remained on its own wave. The power vertical behaved as if Russia would always be running its errands, as if nothing threatens the “oil emirate” status of Belarus - without oil. The government pretended to be always given a loan, turning a blind eye to pranks with sanctions, petrochemical schemes, smuggling and dumping.

The year 2019 was a time of predictable, built into the Gosplan model, deterioration in the quality of institutions, finances, and competitive factors. Personnel lack in the management system has become no less an acute problem than demography and brain drain.

2019 has become a year of multi-level Failure. It became obvious that the Belarusian economy in the #5 five-year plan (2016-2020) will not catch up with the world average growth rate.

2019 was the year of missed opportunities for de-bureaucratization, decriminalization and de-shadowing of the Belarusian economy.