Maxim Katz: Lukashenka Is Constantly Taking Steps That Weaken Him

In the entourage of the dictator, a "hell of a hell" is taking place.

The well-known Russian blogger and political scientist Maksim Katz gave a long interview to Radio Svaboda about the situation in Belarus.

The Charter97.org website publishes excerpts from it:

"In Lukashenka's entourage, a 'hell of a hell' is taking place"

If we look from the elites' side, from the side of Lukashenka's entourage, from the side of the fighters, a "hell of a hell" is taking place every day. They have to beat civilians, which is not so easy. It seems to people that they are trained, that they do not care; in fact, they do. Even the most trained ones have some kind of reflection, and they need to overcome themselves every time; they need to be worked on ideologically.

And the elites have a feeling that it doesn't end there. They are worried; they do not understand how to stop it. And, of course, they also feel psychological fatigue from this confrontation. They look politically weaker against the background of this confrontation. The protest in this regard is many times stronger - it includes the entire society. Since the pensioners came to the streets, it means that EVERYONE is protesting. Pensioners are the support of any government. And then they come out and shout: "Lukashenka to the paddy wagon!"

All this leads to great tension in the people who are in power. And as a result of this, there are visits to the pre-trial detention center and attempts to beat, threaten, frighten. They are looking for a way to stop this. But, apparently, it will not be possible to stop this.

After a while, all of them will start to think about one thought: that it is not tool ate to stop and, perhaps, they can even keep freedom for themselves, or maybe even some positions for those who did not get much in the dirt, in case Lukashenka leaves.

And everyone will begin to understand this, including the eastern partners of Belarus. Russia, which seemed to support a little at first, is no longer there.

And I think that everyone in Russia already understands that this will not stop, and the only way to stop this, the only possible compromise, is Lukashenka's departure.

"Political Lukashenka and his entire team are doing everything wrong, exactly the opposite of how it should be"

- You are the first Russian sports poker champion. How would you assess the tactics and chances of your opponent (Lukashenka and his power bloc) from the point of view of a player who plays for the team of the Belarusian people who wants to change?

- If we talk about poker thinking and give a short lecture, then the poker player thinks in probabilities. People usually think will it be, or will it not be. If the probability is 70 to 30, then people begin to think that this will definitely happen. The poker player thinks in probabilities. He knows that 70/30 is when you rolled the dice and won two-thirds of the time and lost one-third, and that also happens. It is not very correct to assess the situation in Belarus in such categories. In these categories, you can evaluate the elections in America.

These protests need to be assessed politically, not in terms of probability theory. Political Lukashenka and his entire team are doing everything wrong, exactly the opposite of how it should be. It is known that if you use excessive violence, then you cause a wave of protest and a wave of solidarity in society, and everyone forgets their differences and begins to fight a common enemy. Wherever they tried to use violence, there was such a reaction from society. Everyone knows that.

However, he used violence, not just excessive, but absolutely impossible violence, and continues to use it. And every time he causes this wave, more and more people join the protest. Any of the steps he takes are all terribly stupid. One can judge the reason for this - probably, he is not very smart, and for 26 years in power, that part of his brain that is responsible for political action and planning has atrophied. He just lives in a reality that is not like yours and mine. He has a great rating, and everyone supports him. He is looking for some kind of compromise among the Belarusians, and, in his reality, there is about the same number of protesters and those support him.

It is completely far from reality; it is a little scary. He constantly takes steps that weaken him, and, sooner or later, he will fall.

"I don't think it will last more than 3-4 months"

- Usually, such protests last an average of 4 to 6 weeks. This protest has lasted longer. The fact that it does not decrease shows its stability. It is difficult to predict, but I think that in general, this will not last more than 3-4 months, especially if such persistence continues, something new will be invented, as is happening now.