The Collapse of Political Embalming

The Belarusian society has received a strong vaccination against the dictatorship.

Against the backdrop of dramatic events in Belarus, more and more unexpected news comes from Kyrgyzstan. The Belarusians were greatly impressed by the fact that the protesters there won a victory in one day. But the voluntary resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov caused an even greater effect. At the same time, he said in his address to the people: "I do not hold on to power. I do not want to remain in the history of Kyrgyzstan as the president who shed blood and shot at his own citizens. No power is worth the integrity of our country and harmony in society." In the context of the Belarusian realities, the decision and especially the motivation of Kyrgyzstan's head are very significant. It turns out that there are such politicians in the world.

For a statesman, especially one who has been in power for a long time, it is important to leave the political scene on time. Like a great athlete, you need to leave the sports arena on time before the fans begin to boo you. A sense of historical time, an understanding of the exhaustion of one's mission in the people's fate is a special talent.

The final chord, the end of a political career, is very important. History knows many examples when well-known statesmen, who at one time enjoyed great popularity in the country, stayed at their post, could not leave in time, and remained in the memory of descendants with a minus sign. For, as Stirlitz said in the famous film, "the last is remembered."

But Lukashenka did not leave. The desire for power turned out to be stronger. As the wife of the Byzantine emperor Theodora used to say: "The royal purple is the noblest shroud." And now, he faces all the consequences of the systemic crisis of the model created by him, the collapse of the rating, and the loss of a positive image.

Sitting in one place for a long time turns even a talented politician into a monument from another era, into a symbol of stagnation. Political embalming leads to the fact that he loses touch with reality, a sense of proportion. This is evidenced by the figure of 80% of the votes allegedly received by Lukashenka. (Although numerous facts indicate that he lost the elections.) This is the result of the fact that he has old answers to new challenges. Lukashenka did not even notice that he and the country, its people, live in different historical periods.

26 years of one-man rule in the absence of full feedback from society have left their mark. In such conditions, the political instinct that had repeatedly saved Lukashenka in a critical situation becomes dull and atrophies. He no longer feels the electric field of society, which is not even measured by sociology. Selfless rapture with power turns into self-intoxication. This pattern applies to all dictators who have ruled the state for a long time, with no exceptions.

And so it happened that, in 2020, the populist suddenly became a figure, to put it mildly, unloved by the majority of Belarusians. And he has no choice but to put on a bulletproof vest, grab a machine gun and hide in the residence from the protesting people.

It seems that now it does not matter for him what image of Lukashenka will go down in Belarusian history. This follows from his actions. Perhaps, he thinks like this: "If you, Belarusians, don't love me so much, then I don't feel sorry for this country. If I can't have it, then nobody else can!" It seems that the thirst for power and revenge on all who encroached on it overshadowed everything. As I see it, he is ready to keep this power exclusively on bayonets, regardless of the damage it inflicts on the country.

In any case, Lukashenka has become the main factor in the destabilization of Belarus. And to restore stability in the country, I believe, is possible only as a result of his resignation.

But, perhaps, there is a silver lining. Lukashenka's 26-year rule has shown everyone how not to rule the country, what not to do. Belarusian society has received a strong vaccination against dictatorship, against the idea of a paternalistic state, against the sole reign, against the unlimited power of one person, against being at the top of the power pyramid as a permanent ruler for a long time, and against elections without a choice. Whatever the outcome of the current confrontation will be, the future development of Belarus is possible only on the way to "de-lukashenization."

Valery Karbalevich, Narodnaya Volya