Lukashenka’s Gripped in a Vice

There is less room for manoeuvre.

On October 25, Minsk resembled the war ground. It happened when law enforcers used flash grenades against people in the area of Orlovskaya Street who demanded the resignation of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. According to some sources, the authorities also used rubber bullets. The detained people were forced to face the asphalt again. These atrocities (not only in the capital but also in Hrodna and other cities) prove that the regime has no intention to give up. However, political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky writes on naviny.by that the leader is gripped in a vice.

This Sunday's action appeared to be the most large-scale after August 30, when Belarusians "congratulated" Lukashenka on his birthday. According to independent media, now there are 100-200 thousand people. In general, the state propaganda hurried up to announce that the protest went in the doldrums.

A sensational ultimatum has served as a mobilizing factor. Besides, those fighting for a change of power were certainly encouraged when the rally in support of Lukashenka scheduled for Sunday was cancelled. These convulsive movements of the authorities revealed their uncertainty and nervousness.

Both Moscow and Washington D.C. puts pressure.

This week two strong external players, Russia and the United States, persistently preached Lukashenka. On October 22, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin arrived and demonstrated his greetings on behalf of Vladimir Putin.

Also, Naryshkin talked about constitutional reform that seemed to be far from his vision. Meanwhile, Putin said at the Valdai forum that the brutality (cruelty is more accurate, of course) of the law enforcers in Belarus might have been unjustified and those responsible had to be liable.

In general, two things are obvious: Moscow a) balk at the Belarusian authorities' odd methods in the context of the severe domestic political crisis and b) insists on a more or less decent (not quite farcical) dialogue on amendments to the Constitution and new presidential elections after its adoption (as one can understand, elections without Lukashenka).

We do not know what Lukashenka said to Naryshkin. The Belarusian leader tried to assure the U.S. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo who called on October 24 that everything was fine. According to the state media, he "told his interlocutor about the national dialogue that is currently active in Belarus".

Well, it's too active. The leader even went to the KGB jail for that. However, the imitation game he proposed failed to inspire political prisoners.

The dialogue this Sunday looked even more exciting. The law enforcers responded to the people who took to the streets with grenades (Thank God, not ball ones) and bullets (rubber ones).

In general, the report of the Belarusian officials about the telephone conversation with Washington D.C. makes one smile. It would look as if the head of the State Department had nothing else to do before the presidential election there (the outcome of which is barely predictable unlike one in Belarus) but call Minsk to listen to the situation in the world and the wishes to Donald Trump.

Later, the press service of the U.S. Foreign Ministry reported that the Secretary of State "called for the release and immediate departure from Belarus of the illegally detained U.S. citizen Vitaly Shklyarov" (the Belarusian side mentioned it as a euphemism "talking about fate" without mentioning the last name). Pompeo "once again declared that the United States supported the aspiration of the Belarusian people for democracy" (stood up for Lukashenka's opponents).

One has to gradually release political prisoners.

Shklyarov (he seems to have just got into hot water when he arrived at a wrong time to his homeland. Then the authorities were looking for foreign puppeteers), as we know, was released from the detention centre, and then the house arrest even before the call from the State Department.

One gathers this surge of humanism was not accidental. Washington D.C. spoke even earlier about Shklyarov's release. The repressive machine will have to release this poor thing soon.

Logic suggests that the release of other political prisoners should continue. Lukashenka, of course, would like to see them play imitation in a large-scale public dialogue (so far, this action is taking place only on obscure official "dialogue platforms"). However, there are hard nuts to crack behind bars. One has to gradually release them anyway.

Not so long ago Lukashenka said when commenting on the protests that "One has planned it beforehand... The USA supervise all this, while the Europeans play along". Now, as we can see, he has to, albeit insincerely, report to this ugly Uncle Sam about the dialogue with opponents in the country.

Well, it's the only option. After all, Moscow has nailed him. The collapse of the Western vector promises formidable challenges for the economy, which is already suffocating like a covid patient. Above all, the protests continue, no matter how much water from water cannons one pour down on stubborn people, beat them up with batons or arrest.

There is less room for manoeuvre.

We can see that in terms of geopolitics, the Belarusian leader is gripped in a vice. On the one hand, the Kremlin persistently puts pressure being dissatisfied with the next twists and turns of the sly partner. On the other hand, the West is pressing. It cannot compromise its principles.

The logic suggests that Minsk will now try again (it seems it is already trying) to exploit the contradictions between the centres of power. However, neither the West nor the East has faith in the Belarusian leadership, which has finally entangled itself in testimony. External players will press on, insist on fulfilling promises.

Also, the internal pressure in the Belarusian political pot is high, and the economic prospects are getting worse.