Nikolai Svanidze: Lukashenka Is 100% a Political Corpse

Putin is looking for a replacement.

For more than three months, the protests that began after the presidential elections have continued in Belarus. Tens of thousands of people have served or are still serving their sentences, hundreds of criminal cases are being initiated against the protesters, but the facts of violence by the security forces remain outside the field of vision of law enforcement agencies. Why, despite this, Moscow is still loyal to Aliaksandr Lukashenka, and how long this support will last, Russian journalist and public figure Nikolai Svanidze told tut.by.

- While the confrontation in Belarus is in the active phase, it is difficult to imagine how everything will end. Some part of Belarusians is still waiting for things to be "as before."

- It will definitely not be as before. I think it will still be better. I really hope so and wish you so. And I wish you not only because I am deeply sympathetic to you as a people, as a country, but also because I really like the way Belarusians behave. We look at you and think about our own future. What we'll do may depend on what you do and how you do it, although our situations are different. Belarusians have Russia, and we have only us and no one else who could influence our fate.

In any case, I think Lukashenka is doomed. Absolutely. One hundred percent, he is a political corpse.

- But what about Putin's support for him? Will it not save?

- Regardless of this support, especially because it is limited in time. I think Putin is no longer interested in him because he is not interested in a person who cannot keep the republic in check. And Lukashenka has lost control in the country. This is an absolutely unpopular person whose power is based only on the support of the security forces. Putin is not interested in a man sitting on bayonets. Moreover, he does not like Lukashenka, and Putin is a subjective person. If there was a personal friendship between them, one could count on support. But here, it doesn't even smell like friendship.

- Nevertheless, for twenty years, the relations between Belarus and Russia have been equal to the relations between Lukashenka and Putin. And it looks pretty weird. Insults, reproaches, claims, then oaths of allegiance - in principle, this is acceptable for interpersonal relations, but when solving issues of gas supplies, mutual recognition of visas, I would like a more predictable and pragmatic policy.

- Quite right. And this is one of the reasons why Putin does not like Lukashenka. Plus, Putin absolutely does not believe him.

- How much longer will Putin support Lukashenka?

- Exactly until he finds a more or less suitable replacement. This replacement must meet two criteria: a person must be selective in Belarus, that is, be quite popular, and, secondly, he must be oriented toward Moscow. That's it. Nothing else matters.

- That is, in principle, the majority of candidates for the presidency in Belarus would suit Putin? There was no anti-Russian sentiment in this campaign.

- It was at the beginning of the campaign. The situation has changed since then. I think if Putin could turn the clock back, he could make a different bet in this election. Now, apparently, he will have to look for other people. And I'm sure he's looking for them. Perhaps among Belarusian generals, perhaps among civilians. But he's looking for it, no doubt.

- Nevertheless, even this year, Moscow, despite periodic tough attacks, seems to be quite loyal to Lukashenka: they let go the takeover of the bank from Gazprom, the detention of the Wagnerites and forgot about the debt for gas at the highest level. Does the Kremlin not believe that it will be better with the new Belarusian leader?

- It's simple: while there is no replacement, Moscow supports Lukashenka. Right now, they will not remind him of all these troubles in the relationship. It is not in Moscow's interests to put Lukashenka even lower for now. He's already completely down. If not for Moscow, Lukashenka would not have existed. Lukashenka's security forces are guided by Moscow, and as soon as Russia gives the go-ahead that he is no longer needed, the support of the bulk of the Belarusian security forces will disappear, and Lukashenka will remain in a void. He sits on a chair made of bayonets; there will be no one to support him if there are no bayonets.

The old guard can no longer cope. Belarus is already different. It is important here that the longer the situation develops, the more likely it is that Belarus will turn its back on Russia. Yes, geography cannot be put anywhere; we will still be neighbors. There is no place to put history either. Now, seeing the support of Lukashenka from the Kremlin, a significant part of Belarusians are increasingly disappointed in both the Kremlin and Putin. The longer this support lasts, the more chances that Belarus will turn its face to the West. Russia is not yet very attractive, and if it remains that way, Belarus will go to the West - if possible, preserving good-neighborly relations with Russia, avoiding NATO membership. Although, maybe not avoiding it, if Russia will behave harshly.

Seeing the support of Lukashenka from the Kremlin, a significant part of Belarusians are becoming more and more disillusioned with both the Kremlin and Putin. The longer this support lasts, the more likely it is that Belarus will turn to the West.

- So far, the situation in Belarus is developing according to a scenario of force. There is practically no one left from the previous composition of the Belarusian government, the government of technocrats; personal loyalty has become a key factor in the distribution of portfolios; the emphasis is on the security forces. How viable is this scheme, at least in the short term? Can you make North Korea out of a European country in the 21st century?

- For a very short time, you can. But the situation is too different from that in North Korea, both in history and in mentality. Belarusians will not allow themselves to be made into North Korea. Lukashenka has no support at all inside the country. Only the security forces need it. The West does not need him outside the country, and Putin needs him until a replacement is found. Lukashenka is doomed.

"In addition to violence, we are today very worried about the unprecedented pressure on journalists: three are in jail on criminal charges, dozens have served or are in prison for 24 hours for working at protest actions. The authorities believe that by removing information about the protests, it is possible to get rid of the protests themselves. Could this work?

- Your conditions are extremely difficult. By the way, in Russia, these conditions are also getting tougher; here we are twin brothers. I will not give recommendations; it is easy to do it while in another country. But you will have to go through this very difficult period. Here you are, by the way, ahead of us. And you already have a light ahead at the end of the tunnel. And I don't think it's that far away anymore.