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BelNPP Is Complete Failure

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BelNPP Is Complete Failure
Photo: TASS

The authorities will have to be liable for the "chimera".

One held the ceremony to put the BelNPP into operation. A few days later, it was pulled out of operation because of the explosion of transformers. It happened without loud high words. The Belorusy i Rynok newspaper asked the famous Russian scientist and statesman Bulat Nigmatulin to assess the very idea of building a nuclear power plant near the Lithuanian border.

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Director General of the Institute of Energy Problems, Deputy Minister of Atomic Energy of the Russian Federation in 1998-2002, seems to rejoice as a nuclear scientist with many years of experience that Belarus has become a "nuclear power". However, as a professional, Bulat Nigmatulin was critical of the economic component of the process.

- Is the NPP so crucial and necessary for the Belarusian economy?

- In 2012, I delivered a report "Development of Electric Power Industry of Russia and Belarus" at the Energy Conference in Minsk. The Cost of Fantasies". I said right in the face of one and a half hundred participants that Belarus did not need a nuclear power plant! Moreover, I explained it. The main reason is that the electricity consumption of your country in 2012 was 30% less than in BSSR times. One cannot know whether the previous indicator will ever rise again. In 2019, consumption remained unchanged.

Secondly, two 1200 MW units are an unacceptable load for your power system; it will not be able to "handle" them. I wondered your Energy Minister then why they were doing it? I did not receive a clear answer. Convinced by the project promoters, Lukashenka gave him an instruction. He was happy to absorb the budget.

The head of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Anatol Rusetski also participated in that conference; he left after my speech. I caught up to him already on the higher floor and handed him the materials. They explained why Belarus did not need an NPP. I asked to hand over the materials to Lukashenka. However, I realized that he was scared and would not do it. Russia and Belarus have one common problem among many scientists, as they follow what-can-I-do-for-you principle.

If Belarus does not pay for the construction of the station with Russia, then yes, its construction makes sense. If one has to repay $13-14 billion over 25 years (at a rate of 3.3% per annum for the spent part of the 10 billion loan), that is, about 0.5 billion a year, it is a huge burden on the economy of Belarus. After all, you have to pay 1.5 billion dollars a year on other loans. The annual payments of $2 billion are an enormous burden for the country sliding into poverty; they threaten to turn the country into an economic protectorate of Russia.

- Indeed, the Belarusian authorities claimed that the NPP commissioning would save about $2 billion a year by reducing gas purchases. Then the savings have drastically dropped to $500 million - about the average annual payments on the revised loan. In the conversation with Deputy Energy Minister Mikhail Mikhadyuk, he said that "full first load of one reactor costs about $130 million". The annual change of 25% of fuel assemblies costs about $35 million". Are these figures reliable?

- Yes, they are. Will two thousand people at the plant work for free? What about the other costs? The cost of nuclear fuel is on average 13% (almost all plants are fully shock-resistant), in the USA - 20%! Your nuclear power plant will have approximately the same figures. What kind of savings?!

There is the flip side: what is the purchase price for Russian gas? what is the cost of electricity supplied? what amount will be specifically saved at a particular production level at the NPP? If no clear figures exist, one can ignore officials as they know as much about as a pig about pineapples.

- According to the state program on the energy consumption growth, the main point is the installation of energy boilers throughout the country to generate thermal energy and "drain" electricity of the NPP through them. Why is there nothing like that in Russia?

- This is a costly affair; the installation of such boilers will be unprofitable. Do the Belarusian authorities have an opportunity to play with long-term investments?

- The second hope of the authorities is the mass distribution of electric transport. How can this idea help solve the problem of night failure? How much can it cost?

- Hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. Toys with green energy and its derivatives aim at rich countries. Moreover, now oil and are very cheap.

Why one should invest huge money in these projects while teachers, doctors and other state employees have small salaries and pensioners have miserable pensions? How much more effective will all these projects be compared to existing ones? You can ask officials about it. Let them give you specific data signed by every official responsible!

- Regarding figures. The installed capacity index (ICI) of the BelNPP is brought up to an exorbitant 92%. The payback period, defined as 18 years, depends on it. Are these figures reliable?

- No, they are not! The average ICI of Russian NPPs is 83-84%. Your plant cannot operate at full capacity all the time. Alexander Novak, former Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, now Deputy Prime Minister, said that BelNPP would not deliver electricity to the Russian power system: we have enough in the country, and the energy consumption is not growing. There will be no place to sell electricity from the NPP. Therefore, the power load will be of 50% or even 30-40%! Not only in the first year needed for pilot operation.

- In an interview with Mikhail Mikhadyuk, he told me that the BelNPP ICI would be higher than that of the Russian ones, as it is a new plant and yours are old ones.

- What?! (Laughs) As far as I understand, he's not a nuclear expert. He doesn't know anything about it and says complete nonsense. Yes, a good, new nuclear power plant may have ICI of 90%, but if there is no consumer in Belarus (there will be no one), there is no one to use this electricity. This indicator primarily depends on available consumers!

Yes, now the Belarusian authorities will "kill" gas-fired heating plants to "make room" for the NPP; it fails to deliver the announced results. The ICI of the Russian power system is 83%. However, the energy system of Russia has been balanced by types of generating capacity since Soviet times. God forbid, the BelNPP may reach the level of 50%. However, it will beg Russia to export energy there.

We do not have a consumer for you, even our plants are not loaded, even the Smolenskaya one. One has to dismantle one unit to accept your electric power. Yes, one will start decommissioning the old power units at Smolenskaya NPP in a few years, the first one is planned for 2027. It seems that there is an opportunity for you to export, but what should one do to 27 thousand people living in Desnogorsk, the NPP's staff? Therefore, it is planned to introduce the first unit of the new plant in 2027.

- What if Russia can buy energy from our NPP?

- Then we will have to shut down Smolenskaya NPP, as we have no consumers for you. Besides, Rosenergoatom will be strictly against it: they have to earn money. Why do they need Belarusian electricity in the system?

- Is it realistic not to fall into the trap of night-time valley when launching two power units of BelNPP?

- When launching two units you will also have a day-time valley! It is a 24-hour valley. You will have a night-time valley with one working unit. It means the BelNPP is a complete failure.

- Energy transformers exploded just a couple of days after the launch at the BelNPP. A similar case happened at the LenNPP.

- They sometimes explode either because of improper adjustment or a manufacturing defect. It is easy to replace them. However, this equipment costs several tens or even several hundred thousand dollars.

- Is it possible to supply Belarusian electricity to the Baltic States?

- It is only hypothetical. It could have been possible if your authorities had not been in conflict with the Lithuanians. There was a reason to build NPP near the border with the European Union. The aim was to export energy. It is built 50 km from the neighbours' capital... Now both Lithuanians and other neighbours refuse to buy it. The Baltic States gradually withdraw from the energy ring (Belarus - Russia - Estonia - Latvia - Lithuania) and replace it with Nord Pool - the EU energy exchange. They buy electricity from Europeans at an average cost of less than 4 euro cents for a kWh.

- Energy Minister of Belarus Viktar Karankevich said that "if electric transport grows up to 10 thousand units, electricity consumption will be about 80 million kWh. What do you think about it?

- He should inform where the electricity from the NPP will go. He should speak the economic language rather than feed it with tales. In particular: how much investments it will require to let these 10 thousand electric cars appear, and when these investments will pay off. Journalists should ask why one should build it for the sake of a modest 80 million or even 800 million?

- Given all the mentioned above, when will the BelNPP pay off?

- Never. One will have to be liable for chimeras and embezzlement.

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