What Will Be the Consequences of the Belarus Democracy Act?

The US may return sanctions against the Belarusian oil industry.

Upon leaving office, US President Donald Trump signed the US Federal Budget Act, which includes the Belarus Democracy, Human Rights, and Sovereignty Act. This is the reaction of the US leadership to the Belarusian events.

What should you pay attention to in this regard? First, the sanctions against the Belarusian leadership were adopted in the form of a law, which obliges the presidential administration to take appropriate measures.

Moreover, the document specifies the timeframe for making certain decisions. Yes, no later than four months later, the US Secretary of State and the head of national intelligence must submit a report on the threat to the sovereignty and independence of Belarus. The document on the financial situation of Aliaksandr Lukashenka and his closest associates must also be submitted within three months.

Today in the United States, the conflict between Republicans and Democrats is quite acute. However, there is no disagreement on the Belarusian issue, and there is a consensus between the two main American parties.

It is obvious that the new administration of Joe Biden will make concrete decisions on the implementation of the law. I think that in this regard, we should expect other accents in the Belarusian direction. Democrats, in comparison to Donald Trump's team, tend to pay more attention to democracy and human rights. This is very important for the current situation in Belarus.

In addition, Joe Biden visited Ukraine and, therefore, personally knows Eastern and Central Europe's situation and is involved in this region.

It is noteworthy that, in the adopted document, the Belarusian issue is largely considered in the context of Russian-American relations. The law says that the United States does not recognize the inclusion of Belarus in the "union state" with Russia. The national intelligence report should assess how the Russian government is using the current political crisis in Belarus.

Unless something extraordinary happens, an American ambassador will appear in Minsk shortly. It is not yet clear how the delicate issue of presenting credentials to the head of state will be resolved. After all, the Democracy Act does not recognize Aliaksandr Lukashenka as "the legally elected leader of Belarus."

As for concrete steps to implement the document, the first thing that the Joe Biden administration can do is lift the moratorium on sanctions against Belarus according to the 2004 Democracy Act. Let us remind you that these sanctions were suspended (but not canceled) in 2015. In particular, they relate to trade in petroleum products. I believe that there will be no more new American oil tankers for Belarus, at least while the Belarusian political regime exists.

Valery Karbalevich, Radio Svaboda