His days are numbered.
After the elections in August, people in Belarus took to the streets, workers at state enterprises went on strike, and the police and military began to suppress protests violently. They fired not only rubber bullets, but also combat ones. People were being beaten in front of TV cameras, prisons became overcrowded, and many people fled to neighboring countries, primarily to Lithuania, Uffe Elleman-Jensen, former Danish Foreign Minister (translated by inosmi.ru).
writes in an article for Berlingske.
Both the EU and the U.S. imposed sanctions, but cautioned to exacerbate the conflict so that it would not lead to direct confrontation with Russia.
Putin so far supports Lukashenka, though he is considered a ridiculous figure in Moscow. Before the August 9 election, he was even accusing Russia of interfering in the election race. He said that Russian "puppeteers" were supporting the opposition and that 33 members of an unofficial Russian armed formation had been arrested in Belarus.
But after the vote, the atmosphere heated up and Lukashenka changed note. The arrested Russians were released home, and the Belarusian dictator began complaining that NATO troops had reached the very borders of the country. It was complete nonsense, but it was clear to whom those words were directed: Putin had to help him.
Lukashenka was invited to Putin's palace on the Black Sea coast in Sochi. The Russian president promised him economic assistance, but said that the Belarusians should solve their own internal problems through "peaceful dialogue".
After that meeting, many people were analyzing Putin's body language in detail: his contempt for Lukashenka was noticeable. And he looked like a cat that cornered a mouse.
Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Minsk. He said: "First of all, greetings from Vladimir. He confirmed everything that you had agreed upon with him before, especially in Sochi".
"What exactly have they agreed on with Putin? All we have to do is wait," - Uffe Elleman-Jensen writes. But he adds that in any case "Lukashenka's days are numbered".
That he will no longer oppose the idea of a common constitution for Russia and Belarus? In this case, the days of Lukashenka are numbered.