Some Sort Of Alternative!

The Russian oil will also be supplied through Klaipeda and Odesa.

By all means, the Belarusian leadership seeks to maintain the former role of the oil industry in the Belarusian economy, not paying attention to the price they will have to pay for it.

For many days since the beginning of the year, the information agenda is determined by the issues related to oil in one way or another. Here is a chronicle of only one day, February 25.

What is most important issue discussed at the session of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the results of the work of the diplomatic service bodies for 2019, according to BelTA? Right, the oil issue. Although, it would seem, oil and diplomacy are completely different cases. “The introduction of restrictions on the export of petroleum products, and the supply of dirty oil by Russia led to a decrease in the export of our goods related to the oil sector by $ 2 billion 55 million,” said Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei. Which negatively affected the Belarusian export as a whole.

Then the media reported that the Russian Transneft has accepted applications from several unnamed companies for the supply of oil to the Belarusian refineries in March.

Also on this day, Belarus and Russia finally agreed on compensation for dirty oil.

Let’s proceed to the main news. In March, oil supplies to Belarusian refineries from Ukraine will begin via the Odesa-Brody pipeline. Volume - several tankers.

And all this was in the top. After all, oil is everything for Belarusians.

Meanwhile, for the first two months of the year, the Belarusian refineries have been operating at less than half their capacity. And this immediately affected the reduction of the country's gross domestic product in January by 2%. And so far, no concrete information, details about the alleged compensation by Russia for the losses from rising oil prices, announced by Lukashenka, have been heard. On the contrary, the authorities are feverishly looking for new alternatives for the supply of raw materials.

In the new situation created in connection with the gradual transition of Russia to the world oil prices for Belarus, and the crisis in bilateral relations caused by these circumstances, the country's leadership had at least three solutions.

First, to put up with the fact that the role of oil refining, in general, the oil industry in the Belarusian economy will be greatly reduced. And to come to the conclusion that no more than 7 million tons of oil (and not 24 million tons, as planned for this year) will be enough for Belarus to fully satisfy its own needs. However, this requires a change in the socio-economic model.

The second option. To sell refineries to the Russian oil companies. Perhaps, managers like Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin will find oil supply options for the refineries that will become their property, at prices that would ensure their competitiveness and profitability.

However, two problems arise here. Do Russian companies need Belarusian refineries now? They were an attractive piece when Belarus was an oil offshore. And after reaching world oil prices, they will cease to be so tasty. But with Ukrainian refineries, Russian companies did not succeed. In any case, now Russian oligarchs will not give much for these plants. They have drastically fallen in price.

Another moment. The sale of refineries to Russian oligarchs means that they will no longer be the chicken which for a long time laid golden eggs, for the Belarusian economy. Only taxes to the budget - and nothing more, no duties.

And finally, the third option: to leave everything as it is, by all means trying to maintain the status quo.

One can easily guess that the authorities chose the third option. Do not change anything - this is in the style of Lukashenka. Therefore, all efforts are aimed at somehow reaching an agreement with Russia. And at the same time, there is a feverish search for alternative oil supply options. That Norwegian oil through the Baltic, then Azerbaijani oil through the Black Sea. Please note that in order to launch a reverse in the Odesa-Brody pipeline, long-term contracts are needed. For the sake of one tanker, Ukrainians would not agree to this.

Moreover, the authorities are not very worried that oil from alternative sources is clearly more expensive than the Russian oil delivered through the Druzhba pipeline, even with a bonus. Moreover, it turns out that the Russian oil will also be delivered through Klaipeda and Odesa. This is some sort of an alternative!

The logic here is as follows: the most important thing is that everything works. And no matter with what efficiency. As a matter of fact, the whole Belarusian public sector works on this principle. And the population is to pay for all the losses. It’s just, gasoline prices will start to grow faster.

And at the same time, this is the pressure on the Russian oil companies to make them offer better conditions. However, it seems this has not yet been very successful.

Valer Karbalevich, Radio Svaboda