Only quarantine can help avoid the worst-case scenario.
Eurasian States in Transition Research Center (EAST Center) has prepared a report on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on Belarus.
The authors of the report “Coronavirus Epidemic: Scenarios of Consequences for Belarus” refer to forecast indicators from a study by the Imperial College London, scientific publications from authoritative sources, and researches by other think tanks, the website of the Belsat television channel writes.
The EAST Center draws attention to mathematical calculations, from which it follows that 86% of all cases of the coronavirus infection in China have not been reported; as well as a mathematical model for the development of the epidemic in Belarus in a study by the Imperial College London. It states that in the absence of measures to combat the coronavirus in Belarus, about 68 thousand people may die. This scenario involves almost 350,000 hospitalized (current infection rate in the United States).
With mild control measures, between 15,000 and 32,000 victims can be expected.
British researchers say that if the Belarusian authorities impose strict quarantine measures at the death rate of 18 people a week, then by the end of the epidemic, 1860 people will die.
The strict quarantine measures strategy provides for: social distancing of the entire population, self-isolation of people with symptoms of the coronavirus infection, voluntary home quarantine for two weeks of all household members in which a person with the coronavirus was detected, and closure of educational institutions.