Pavel Daneika: What's Happening Now Is Very Nice Period Compared To What Will Be In Autumn

The Belarusian economy will face a very serious challenge.

There is no doubt that in the near future, Russia will build additional barriers to the Belarusian exports to protect its own business.

Pavel Daneika, Administrative Director of the Center for Economic Research of BEROC, IPM Group Manager, expressed this opinion during the online meeting within the framework of the "Open Dialogue on Economic Reforms". Thinktanks.by cites a brief macroeconomic forecast he made:

- Belarus, unlike many countries, is in the toughest conditions of limiting economic support measures. Russia is likely to treat its wounds with excessive money printing. This will lead to inflation, ruble depreciation, but also to support business and people.

The saddest thing is that Belarus cannot even start printing money now. Our debt burden in this case will lead to default. Therefore, we are now extremely limited in financial instruments and have even more limited access to external financing than other countries.

How will this situation develop? The purely Belarusian way out is self-reliance. Nobody will help. We have already got used to it somehow, but I think it is going to be very hard. Because autumn will come and, I think, the export-oriented economy will face a very serious challenge. As the support of national business will be the number one issue on the agenda of any country. And this means the introduction of customs duties, the protection of national business by reducing foreign competition. And for Belarus, such measures may prove even more painful. I think no one has any doubts that Russia will protect its business and start putting additional barriers on the way of Belarusian exports. Therefore, it is not going to be easy.

What is happening now, I think, is a very nice period compared to what will happen in autumn.