Leanid Zaika: If Belarusian GDP Falls By 10-15% This Year, It Will Be Good Result

The less the officials deal with economic issues the better.

About a million people work. According to the statistics of the National Bank, at the beginning of the year the share of unprofitable enterprises increased to 24%. Probably, during the year the situation will become even worse. Economist Leanid Zaika has assessed the unfortunate statistics in the express commentary for “Solidarity”:

- Back in the 90s, we in Belarus took part in the analysis - and it turned out that there are two regions that I would call depressed. These are Mahiliou and Vitsebsk. There, the proportion of unprofitable enterprises is over 50%, he recalls.

According to the economist, in the recent history of Belarus there were periods when there were entire regions lied flat on the back:

- Now we need to watch. We need to see the proportion of enterprizes with absolutely negative indices. And those with very low profitability, from 0 to 5%. The share of such enterprises can reach 30-40%.

That is, of course, today is not the mid-90s, but I have a question: how come we have been doing the same stupid stuff for 25 years? I’m already fed up of constantly talking about these unprofitable enterprises. The time has passed, and again they are unprofitable.

Perhaps it is better to introduce the concept of a loss-making president? Or a loss-making prime minister?

According to Leanid, the less the Belarusian officials try to heroically save the economy, the greater the benefit:

- I would send all officials to rest for two months on the Canary Islands. Especially the government - in full composition. Let them even take charter flights. And nothing will change, - the economist says, ironically.

Speaking about whether to expect the “Black Swan” for the Belarusian economy to come in 2020, the interlocutor says:

- It will not be a black swan, but a stuffed turkey. If the Belarusian GDP falls by 10-15% this year, it will be good. If they say that we have minus 2-3% ... that means they will be lying. As Mr. Lukashenka once told his ministers, we know who is lying and who is not.