Vitaly Portnikov: Lukashenka Only Simulated Guarantor of Non-Aggression Against Ukraine

Ukrainian security was a coin to exchange.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka announced the "border closure with Lithuania and Poland" and "tougher border control" with Ukraine, Ukrainian political scientist Vitaly Portnikov wrote for Belsat. At first glance, it may seem Ukraine faces a less restrictive measure, as the border with the country is not being closed, but faces "only" tougher border control. But there is another angle. Lithuania and Poland are NATO members, and the "tougher border control" in that direction may look like a demonstration of an increased military presence of the CSTO member states. One can intimidate Ukraine with tougher border control, especially against the background of the military exercises of Russia and Belarus.

The kindest relations for the sake of non-aggression

This "tougher border control" looks indicative against the background of long-term confidence of Ukrainian politicians that Lukashenka is the guarantor of their country's security and Russia's non-aggression against it. This confidence became a national security issue after Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014. Lukashenka then met with Acting Ukrainian President Alexander Turchinov, with whom the Kremlin refused to have any official contact, provided Minsk as a venue for negotiations on the Donbas issue, and then held talks with both the new Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, and his successor, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Kyiv preferred to turn a blind eye to the authoritarian nature of Lukashenka's regime. I would say it has always been like that. For Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yanukovych, Lukashenka was a partner in the general integration course with Russia. For Viktor Yuschenko he was a colleague who allowed him to become a "lawyer of Belarus" in Europe. For Poroshenko and Zelensky, he was already a "non-aggression guarantor". A person one has to be in good relations and turn a blind eye to the authoritarian nature of the regime. For the sake of non-aggression, of course.

There has never been any "guarantor of non-aggression".

And suddenly it turns out that these guarantees are a myth, and Lukashenka together with Putin protects the so-called allied state from external aggression. Moreover, the Belarusian ruler confidently names Ukraine among the countries that participated in the preparations to overthrow his regime. This is although the Ukrainian president was Viktor Yanukovych - not an enemy of his Belarusian counterpart at all - when Lukashenka defined the early decade as the time when the West got down to the plan development. Neither Poroshenko not Zelensky showed any hostility. But Lukashenka does not care. The main thing for him is to attract Putin's attention to the tale of western (and Ukrainian, of course) threat and get unconditional support.

The Ukrainian security, Lukashenka allegedly guaranteed all these years, turned out to be the coin to exchange in this dirty game. Of course, it does not mean that Russia will attack Ukraine tomorrow from the side of Belarus. But it means there was no "guarantee of non-aggression" at all. Lukashenka imitated the guarantor until it was profitable for him to bargain with Putin. However, if tomorrow the attack on Ukraine plays in his hands, he will do it without any hesitation.