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Political Scientist: The Kremlin's Position Is That Lukashenka Should Resign

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Political Scientist: The Kremlin's Position Is That Lukashenka Should Resign
Valery Karbalevich

Moscow does not give the usurper the support he had hoped for.

Moscow has significantly increased its influence on Belarus. However, it turns out this support of Lukashenka is not that reliable, writes political analyst Valery Karbalevich on his telegram-channel.

On September 17, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov gave a noteworthy interview to RTVI TV Channel. He stated: "Lukashenka himself admitted that he "might stay too long on this position..." As the Belarusian leader said, he's ready to announce early parliamentary and presidential elections after the constitutional reform. This proposal shows the framework for the full-fledged national dialogue. It is crucial for representatives of all segments of Belarusian society to be involved in the constitutional reform process, to make the reform completely legitimate and clear for all citizens. Besides, we need some specific proposals on when, where and how this process may begin".

Thus, Lavrov made public the Kremlin's position, which Putin was pushing through in Sochi. Namely: Lukashenka must resign early without before his new five-year presidential cadence expires.

However, it seems that Lukashenka disagrees with this scenario. Although I can assume he did not object it in Sochi. As soon as he returned home, Lukashenka disowned the Sochi agreements.

A day after negotiations with the Russian president, Lukashenka had an urgent meeting with all senior government officials, calling the event "a meeting with politically active core group". Apparently, the kneeling position of Lukashenka in Sochi raised huge discontentment on the ruling elite. So it was needed to neutralize this impression promptly.

So, addressing this "core group", Lukashenka said: "The next presidential elections will be held under the Constitution".

Lavrov refers to the involvement of representatives of all strata of Belarusian society in the discussion of the constitutional reform to make it completely legitimate and clear for all citizens. Lukashenka says he will discuss the Constitution at a fictitious All-Belarusian meeting.

Lavrov urges to announce "where and how this process can begin". Lukashenka gathers the "core group" first, followed by a women's forum, but says nothing about the schedule of the constitutional reform. He stalls and waits for the situation to clear up, and then plays by the ear. To announce the terms of the Constitution adoption, especially early presidential elections, means to turn himself into a "lame duck". It is how the USA calls a president at the end of his term in office. If all top officials and heads of power structures see that Lukashenka is leaving, the degree of their loyalty to him will significantly decrease with all that it implies.

Meanwhile, the protests in Belarus continue. The confrontation between society and the authorities is ongoing.

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