"Even Minor Desertion Among Tired Belarusian Law Enforcers Can Cause Chain Reaction"

A wave of mass rallies will follow.

In his article for The Jamestown Foundation, a well-known Norwegian political analyst, Professor at the Institute for Peace Research (Oslo) Pavel Bayev analyzes how the situation in Belarus will develop in 2021.

The political scientist notes mass and continuous protests in Belarus cause serious concern of the neighbouring dictatorial regime.

"Concerns in the Kremlin about the consequences of these elections are due to the ongoing crisis in neighbouring Belarus, where the presidential campaign last August was supposed to be a ritual demonstration of the stability of the autocratic system. Nevertheless, it caused an upsurge of street protests," writes Pavel Bayev.

The political analyst notes that Lukashenka's regime is hanging by a thread. Minor event is enough to trigger a "domino effect".

"Aggressive repression of the disgraced ruler Lukashenka has not restored order in the streets. Some experts warn that even minor desertion among the tired Belarusian law enforcers may cause a chain reaction of betrayal, followed by a new wave of huge mass rallies," writes Pavel Bayev.

In this situation, the usurper Lukashenka cannot even rely on his traditional "ally" in the Kremlin. Moreover, Moscow has already written him off as a "political bottom" and is actively looking for a substitute.

"Lukashenka had to give up his old game of distancing from Russia. His regime is becoming increasingly dependent on Putin's favour, and vulnerable to Kremlin pressure. Moscow, however, views the Belarusian ruler as a political bottom and will continue to work on a plan to replace him," argues Pavel Baev.