Any spark is enough to make the "gasoline" flare up with renewed vigor.
Lukashenka's actions lead to the collapse of the country, to the collapse of the economy, first of all. All his attempts to convince members of his government that they are not working well or are looking in the wrong place look funny and ridiculous," economist Leu Marholin said in an interview with the BP website.
Even a freshman at an economic university understands that there will be no investments in the economy, and without them, the economy cannot exist; it can only vegetate, gradually sinking into a swamp.
Russia, too, will not give as much money as necessary, even with all its desire - there is simply no money. The Kremlin understands very well that no matter what Lukashenka says about the political situation, you cannot force the economy to work.
Giving money to Belarus means just throwing it away. Russia can give money when the default on the previous Russian loans looms. Russia will not finance the repayment of Belarusian loans to the International Monetary Fund or other financial institutions - and the debts are crazy.
The country is not expecting anything good, I think, that is why the Kremlin does not put any particular pressure on Lukashenka momentarily.
- And where are the guarantees that the mass protests will resume?
"This is exactly Lukashenka's biggest mistake because he still believes that external puppeteers inspired the protests through local assistants. This is all nonsense. If necessary, the people will come out again, and thousands of Belarusians with telephones and smartphones will replace the ten bloggers - they will record everything and show everything.
Now, Lukashenka is at war with windmills: no matter how many people he imprisons, it will only cause anger. A protest can only be beheaded when it has leadership. But every citizen of the country who looks at the situation with open eyes is a protest: any spark is enough for gasoline to flare up with renewed vigor.
- So, the mass protests are latent for a while?
- Certainly. There are no hopes, and the situation will worsen every day: whoever receives 500 rubles will receive 400, those who earned 400 will receive 300.
- How will relations between Minsk and the Kremlin be built against this background?
- Another 3-4 months will pass, and Lukashenka will again ask for money with an outstretched hand. But he will not receive money. It is interesting how the events will develop on the eve and immediately after the Great People's Khural.
And besides, elections to local councils are scheduled for 2021: I wonder how election commissions will be formed, how they will weed out courtyard and street leaders.
Lukashenka plans, in his own words, to drive everyone under the plinth. But the people say: if you knew where you would fall, you would put some grass under.
Only no one knows this.