White Stork - Black Swan

Russian protests expose Lukashenka's battalion.

The silence of the usually talkative Aliaksandr Lukashenka remained unnoticed amid the tumultuous events of the recent days. The key expert on absolute power and forceful confrontation with society failed to speak out on the issue that makes a noise in Russia. It is hardly a coincidence. Lukashenka is likely to be the main victim of the protests in Russia soon, says Kirill Strakhov, president of the Russian Urban Self-Government Fund, in a blog on Eсho of Moscow.

Many commentators on the protest rallies overlook an important point: why do the rallies seem to be successful in Russia? Yes, a large number of participants played a role. However, there is also a lack of law enforcement resources.

In many places of St. Petersburg, there were no police, protesters easily broke through (and even bypassed!) the fragile chains of the riot police. Instead of police vans, buses and fixed-route taxis were waiting for the detainees on Senatskaya Square. The use of force was possible only when some protesters were cornered.

One can assume that the law enforcement agencies felt weak because of the vast geography of the rallies, which did not let them operate under the old model - focus all their resources in the capitals. However, one should remember another well-known fact - the very "power resource" which was sent by the Kremlin to support Lukashenka's regime. The new situation in Russia, most likely, will force the "resource" to return promptly to the places of its permanent deployment. Of course, it will bare the ranks of Lukashenka's defenders. It will be his problems and new circumstances for the Belarusian society.