The example of Belarusians greatly inspires people in the Russian Federation.
The Belarusian scenario of mass terror is a dangerous path for Russia, and the Russian authorities are unlikely to agree to it, said Russian political scientist and public figure Fyodor Krasheninnikov.
- The fact that this year will not be easy for Putin, the fact that the protest has shown how strong the split in the society is, how young Russian citizens differ in their views on Putin from the elderly - this, of course, cannot be hidden back. We will have to live with this, and the authorities will fight against it, - the political scientist said on the air of Malanka Media.
He is sure that the Russian security forces will only partially borrow “Belarusian methods” to suppress the protests.
- The impunity and a certain insanity of the Belarusian security forces is connected precisely with the fact that Putin and Russia stand behind Lukashenka. Therefore, they behave this way. No one is behind Russia, and Putin, of course, does not want to bring the situation in our country to the Belarusian scenario. He is scared, because Putin will come to Lukashenka's aid, and who will come to Putin's aid?
They are looking for options and one of them is to arrest the organizers of the protest. That is, they believe that people come out to protest, because some person goes around and forces them out: violently, by persuasion, or for money.
Accordingly, if you neutralize this person, then there will be no protest. They have such a theory. They checked it this weekend, neutralized Navalny's comrades-in-arms and thought no one would come out. But, as we can see, it didn't help much.
After all, the Belarusian scenario assumes not only repressions against the organizers, but also mass arrests of people in the streets with beating in the police stations.
So far in Russia there is no such thing that people were arrested en masse and taken to some “Akrestsina street detention center”, and there they were tortured. They are not yet ready for this, they do not dare, because this is a dangerous path, and they understand it.
Moreover, as we see in Belarus, it does not help to collapse the situation into sheer pure violence. There people come out to protest again and again, and Lukashenka looks sick indeed.
We must also understand that Lukashenka has finished his elections, while Putin has elections to the State Duma this year, and he needs to somehow hold them. If the situation worsens by the autumn, then what kind of elections are there?
I think that Putin really wants to end this whole story as quickly as possible so that everything will be quiet by the time of the elections. And they will try to look for all the options for this, including the stick and the carrot. But they will not go according to the forceful Belarusian scenario, because they themselves are afraid of this, and are not ready for it.
Belarus is not a very big country compared to Russia. Try to simultaneously arrange mass terror in 122 settlements! To do this, you need to have completely different punitive bodies, which, fortunately, Putin does not and will not have, - said Krasheninnikov.
Despite the different lines of behavior of the authorities, in his opinion, the protests in the two countries, if they continue simultaneously, will bring our peoples even closer together.
- We saw that people in Khabarovsk were inspired by Belarusians, and Belarusians sent their greetings to Khabarovsk. The Saturday action in Russia was taken with great understanding by the people of Belarus.
Belarusians understand us very well. I always say that in Europe there are two peoples who are now closer to each other than ever - Russians and Belarusians. Because these are two peoples living in the conditions of absolutely disgusting dictatorships, which cannot be compared in their insidiousness even with what Yanukovych tried to do in Ukraine.
A protest against such regimes is not at all the same as a protest against Yanukovych, when there were opposition channels, opposition parliament members, opposition regional administrations, opposition oligarchs. Neither Russia nor Belarus has any of this, and the situation with the protest is much more difficult and dangerous than it was in Ukraine and in other countries.
People are at greater risk. The example of Belarusians inspires people in Russia very much, because they see that they can resist even in such a difficult situation after almost 30 years of terrible Lukashenka's madness. Well, Belarusians are inspired when they see that in Russia, under this leaden Putin sky, people are trying to do something, trying to resist.
I hope that our two peoples, our two protests, will march side by side, and in this sense we are much closer to each other. Because it is not the Victory Day ceremonies that bring the peoples closer, but mutual understanding at a deeper level - what we are now seeing, - says the publicist.
It is precisely the synchronicity of the protests, he believes, that could become fatal for the rulers of the two countries.
“On the one hand, Putin is now feeling what Lukashenka is experiencing, he doesn’t like all of this, and theoretically he can say “if so, we will help Lukashenka more, and give him even more money”.
On the other hand, if the situation in Russia escalates, and becomes even more difficult for Putin, then it seems likely that he will not give a damn about Lukashenka, and will say something like “I have many problems myself, I don’t need you adding up to them”.
It all depends on how the situation will develop in Russia, and in Belarus. If Lukashenka’s regime begins to crumble, and at this time Russia will have its own protests, then Putin, of course, will not have time for Lukashenka, he will save himself, Krasheninnikov believes.