The street is becoming a permanent political factor.
It turns out that revolution is contagious. The moment the protests in Belarus were strangled, they erupted in Russia. The most impressive thing about the current Russian political crisis is its handicraft. From the very beginning, it was artificially provoked by the Putin regime.
Now I am not discussing the question of why Alexey Navalny was poisoned. This is a big topic. But there is an answer to the question of why his arrest was needed. To put it mildly, this is the low ability of those in power, decision-makers, to calculate the consequences of their actions.
The Kremlin's original logic was clear: expel Navalny abroad, turn him into an emigrant, and thus make him safe for the Putin regime. Then, any of his films about palaces and the corruption of high-ranking officials could be declared an intrigue of American intelligence, a Western conspiracy, etc.
But Navalny broke the whole Kremlin scenario with one simple decision to return. Moreover, he acted not only courageously and selflessly but also technologically. The opposition politician left the Kremlin with little choice (whether to arrest or not), and either of them was bad for the authorities. Just at this moment, a film about Putin's palace appears. And the arrest of Navalny began to look like the Russian president's revenge on his opponent.
As a result, the Kremlin, with its own hands, made Navalny a national hero, a martyr who, after being poisoned, rose from the ashes like a phoenix. The main Russian oppositionist checkmated Putin like a child.
If we evaluate the actions of the Russian authorities, then parallels with Belarus involuntarily arise. They follow the same logic of degradation of authoritarian regimes in which there is no system for filtering errors. If politicians are in power for a long time, they lose their adequacy, make more and more elementary punctures, artificially creating a crisis. The current events in Russia are a very good illustration of the thesis that any revolution is the result of the failures of the ruling circles. The Putin regime, like the Lukashenka regime, destroyed the feedback mechanisms with society. Therefore, regular failures, shooting in the foot, inadequacies, especially at the stage of these regimes' decrepitude, are simply programmed.
In addition, in the context of information pluralism, the authorities can no longer impose their agenda on society. Here is a film about Putin's palace gained over 70 million views on YouTube in four days.
All these reasons, combined together, formed a hot political cocktail and blew up the situation. Protests across Russia on January 23 show how electrified the political atmosphere is in the land of victorious Putinism. Perhaps, in Russia, as in Belarus, the street is becoming a permanent political factor.
And for the protest community of Belarus, Russian events became an incentive and hope. If the development of events in Russia continues to grow, it will become an inspiring example. And then a "busy spring" is guaranteed here.
Valery Karbalevich, Free News Plus