In Belarus, State Debt With Guarantees Exceeded 40% of GDP

Even in the structure of the domestic national debt, the Belarusian ruble occupies a marginal position.

The Belarusian national debt remains highly valued. In dollar terms, it is about dozens of billions, writes banki24.by.

The Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus puts on the main page data on the state debt without taking into account government guarantees. The state debt, "cleared" of them, as of September 1, 2021, amounted to 57.16 billion BYN in equivalent.

Why "equivalent"? Because according to the rating agencies and the Ministry of Finance itself, more than 90% of the national debt is denominated in foreign currencies. These are mainly dollars, euros, yuan and Russian rubles.

Even in the structure of the domestic public debt, the Belarusian ruble occupies a marginal position - less than 15%. The rest falls on the currency bonds of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus.

Another peculiarity of the Belarusian situation: the IMF, the World Bank and the Eurasian Development Bank prefer to give figures on the national debt along with government guarantees.

According to international experts, in this way, the risks of the implementation of state payments are more fully taken into account.

It is customary to correlate the relative value of the national debt with the country's GDP. Sheer public debt without guarantees as of September 1 amounted to 35.4%, including external - 28.4%, internal - 7%. National debt with guarantees at the reporting date reached 40.2% of the GDP.

Guarantees are loans and borrowings from organizations, the return of which in case of business problems is guaranteed from state resources. A striking example of debt under state guarantees is a Chinese loan for the construction of Slavkali's facilities.

In terms of money, the state debt with guarantees amounted to 64.93 billion BYN. As of the reporting date, this amount was equivalent to USD 25.9 billion. Separately, state guarantees amounted to BYN 7.77 billion, of which BYN 3.99 billion were provided on the external circuit, and BYN 3.78 billion - on the internal circuit.

Since state guarantees are also highly valued, their amount in BYN is constantly changing due to exchange rate differences. If the Belarusian ruble is devalued, the treasury's foreign exchange guarantees will automatically grow in BYN equivalent. If the Belarusian ruble gets stronger, the BYN-size of foreign exchange guarantees also falls. Domestic public debt is represented by bonds of the Ministry of Finance of Belarus.

As of September 1, 2021, the share of ruble bonds among the agency's securities in circulation was 13.2%. It turns out that the remaining 86.8% are formed by currency bonds of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus. As of the reporting date, the Ministry of Finance owed USD 2.649 billion, EUR 1.030 billion and RUB 147.4 million on domestic foreign currency bonds.