Valery Karbalevich: Angry Putin Decided to “Prick” Lukashenka

The Kremlin pressed on the most painful spot of the "ally."

Against the background of the continuation and even aggravation of the migration crisis, important events took place on the border of Belarus with Poland and Lithuania, political scientist Valery Karbalevich writes.

Quite unexpectedly, Vladimir Putin made a statement at an expanded meeting of the Foreign Ministry collegium on November 18. The President of the Russian Federation said:

“Yes, we know that the situation in Belarus has calmed down inside the country; however, there are problems, and we are well aware of this and, of course, call for a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition.”

The statement is unexpected because it contradicts all the previous rhetoric of Russian officials. Let me remind you that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been announcing for a year that a "dialogue" between the authorities and society on "constitutional reform" is underway in Belarus.

And against this background, there was such an indirect recognition of the fact that the political crisis in Belarus has not been resolved and a call for dialogue. I would like to remind you that the same position is held by the EU and the USA with regard to the solution of the Belarusian issue.

What is behind this? The tension in relations between Minsk and Moscow was revealed back in October. I think it is because Lukashenka promised Putin a transit of power and resignation a year ago. And now he refuses to keep his promise, is trying to somehow screw it up, wants to stay in power as the head of the “All-Belarusian People's Assembly.” And this displeases Putin.

It can be assumed that now one more disagreement has been added to this topic, already connected directly with the migration crisis. Putin likes that the leaders of European countries (Germany, France, etc.) turn to him with a request to solve the problem on the border of Belarus with Poland and Lithuania. He feels himself to be the master, the master of the destinies of the countries of the region.

The tone of statements by Russian officials changed last week. Earlier, Putin avoided interfering in the migration crisis; he responded to all calls from European politicians for help by asking them to turn to Lukashenka. And on November 14, he announced that he was ready to help solve this problem. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov also noted that Russia is ready to mediate in negotiations to resolve the migration crisis.

Perhaps, Putin promised something to Merkel and Macron, saying that if you ask so much, I'll solve your problem. But you are helpless, you can't do anything without me.

And when Putin tried to intervene in the migration crisis, Lukashenka opposed and refused to heed the insistent advice of the Russian leader. And things escalated.

As a result, Putin found himself in a stupid position.

This hurt Putin. Intensive telephone conversations between him and Lukashenka in recent days are noteworthy.

It is important to note that the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said a very important phrase - that it is absolutely wrong to blame Lukashenka for the situation with migrants at the border. That is, Moscow is ready to lay some of the blame for this crisis on Lukashenka! This is an interesting nuance.

For these reasons, an angry Putin decided to troll Lukashenka. And he pressed on the most painful spot of the ally - he called for a dialogue with the opposition.