The Belarusian people will not allow the country to become a failed state.
Where will Belarus take money in 2021, and most importantly, who will give it? Indeed, as the experience of the recent decades shows, the main know-how of the Belarusian economic model is obtaining loans. Aliaksandr Yarashuk, Chairman of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions, shared his opinion on this with the newspaper “Belarusians and the Market”.
- Last year there was a recession in the Belarusian economy, inflation accelerated, the number of unprofitable enterprises increased. But the collapse of the economy in the near future should not be feared, it still has the resources to function. However, we can talk about the trend that has been traced for a dozen years already: a steady deterioration in the performance of the economy, lack of healthy growth, sufficient investment, and a competitive environment. We do not see any prospects, since the state has not taken any measures that could mend this situation and, judging by the speech of Aliaksandr Lukashenka at the State Tax Service, is not going to take. It is necessary to take a number of decisions to improve the situation, but they are not accepted, everything is going according to the established pattern, according to the principle of “withstand for a day and a night”.
Once again, the Belarusian authorities are turning to Russia for help. In September, it was announced that Belarus would receive a $ 1.5 billion loan, but observers agreed that this would delay the inevitable default by only a few months. Now we are talking about asking Russia for 3–3.5 billion dollars. It is difficult to predict how the next meeting of Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin will end. In my opinion, Russia will not refuse to help and support Aliaksandr Lukashenka, it is not in Russia's interests now. Now Russia is interested in supporting Lukashenka, which it showed in September last year.
But, on the other hand, nobody will give Lukashenka three billion. The first reason: Russia itself is not currently in a brilliant economic position. Recently, Vladimir Putin reported on the reduction in the incomes of Russians, and admitted that this could be the reason for the massive protests that took place throughout Russia: “In all countries of the world, including ours, people accumulate fatigue, irritation, and discontent arises, including in relation to the conditions in which they live, the level of income ”. It is quite obvious: in order to bring down the wave of protests, he must improve the financial situation, first of all, of Russians, and not of the inhabitants of Belarus.
Besides, there is a reason that I think is even more important. Now Russia is not interested in taking full allowance for the Belarusian authorities, which have already completely gone bankrupt, including with their economic policy. But Russia is interested in keeping Belarus on a short leash, that is, not letting it die, and preventing economic growth based on its financial injections, but not because this growth will be unhealthy. As a cat plays with a mouse, not killing it, but holding it in a strangled state, so the economy of Belarus will be kept in a strangled state. In Russia, they already understand: give the Belarusian economy an opportunity to raise its head, when games of “multi-vector approach” will begin immediately, the usual actions of flirting with the West, bargaining and threats “to go to Europe” will take place.
Russia has learned its lessons, and will provide little and inadequate aid, perhaps $ 1-1.5 billion. They will give money, but not three billion, and this will not save the Belarusian economy and the entire system built over decades. This amount will not satisfy the needs of the Belarusian authorities.
The dependence of Belarus on Russia will increase significantly. Although the economy of Belarus is now self-sufficient, the tendency is that the further, the more Belarus will turn into a failed state. We see this in relation to business, and the threats that were voiced at the All-Belarusian People's Assembly. If nothing changes, Belarus will become a kind of DPR and LPR, which do not have their own international subjectivity, and are completely dependent on the Russian funding.
But do not forget that there is another subject of politics in the country - the Belarusian people, who have very powerfully declared themselves and their claims to the authorities. After all, even now, pressure is being exerted on the authorities by the Belarusian civil society, the overwhelming majority of the population does not agree with what is happening in the country now, and demands changes. It is no longer so important whether the mass protests will continue in the spring. Huge pressure on the authorities will continue, both officials and security officers feel it, and I do not think that the Belarusian people will let somebody turn their country into a failed state.