18 April 2021, Sunday, 6:06
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“The Inner Circle Is the Most Dangerous for Lukashenka and Is Interested in the Tribunal over Him”

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“The Inner Circle Is the Most Dangerous for Lukashenka and Is Interested in the Tribunal over Him”
Photo: Reuters

For a significant part of officials and security officials, coming to the power of today's opposition is the safest option.

The Puppeteer and the Sheep Telegram channel talked about why the transfer of power from Lukashenka to one of his associates is the most dangerous scenario for people within the regime.

The person from the regime who comes to replace Lukashenka will be extremely unpopular among Belarusians and will not have sufficient legitimacy (we remind you that only fair elections give legitimacy, and none of their close associates, of course, will ever win). Therefore, the designated "successor" will be forced to seek the approval of the people for his political survival.

It will be difficult for a person from the regime to gain even minimal popularity. It will not work to distribute material goods because they do not exist. It is difficult and scary to carry out democratic reforms because there is a great fear of losing power. But there is one very simple and cheap way to get the approval of Belarusians. It is obvious that the most severe punishments for Lukashenka's security forces and high-ranking officials will become a balm for the soul of the Belarusian people.

The “successor” from the circle of Lukashenka’s close associates will still bear the stamp of the regime’s crimes. A great way to at least partially wash it off is to arrange a tribunal over the old elites. This will please not only the people but also make it clear to the international community that the new head of state, although he was once in Lukashenka's inner circle, now resolutely condemns past crimes and is ready to punish those responsible (while, of course, whitewashing himself as much as possible).

Moreover, under the guise of just retribution to the criminals, the “successor” will be able to deal with his rivals within the regime. History knows many examples of the transfer of power within dictatorships, which ended very badly for the ruling class. The most striking is Stalin's rise to power after Lenin's death. As a result, more than half of the Bolshevik leaders of the Leninist draft were shot under the pretext of their anti-popular crimes (and they really committed them in abundance). But the real reason was that they treated Stalin as an equal (and that was until Lenin's death) and could not accept him as an absolute ruler.

Approximately the same alignment will be in Belarus, if power passes, for example, to Halouchanka. The same Makei will never truly be loyal to him because he remembers the times of joint writing down the ravings of the former dictator in a notebook. The siloviki will not be loyal to the “successor” either because it was not he who hung the stars on their shoulder straps but Lukashenka. Therefore, the new leader of the regime will have to deal with the old cadres to gain full control.

From the above, we can conclude that if a person from Lukashenka's entourage comes to power, then for many good reasons it will be beneficial for him to destroy the old elites (except himself). Therefore, no matter how strange it may be, for a Belarusian security official and an official, the coming to power of today's opposition is a much safer option than transferring powers from Lukashenka to the same Makei (Halouchanka, Viktar Lukashenka).

The human factor is also important here. It is difficult to imagine that, for example, under President Babaryka someone would be shot. Viktar Dzmitryevich is a humane and civilized person. But it is difficult to suspect Lukashenka's accomplices in humanism, especially in relation to each other. And if, for example, a security officer Halouchanka comes to power, then the chances of security officer Kubrakou dying from an overdose of lead in the body will increase dramatically. Fortunately, they have a lot of dirt on each other

It is important to understand that the transfer of power within the regime can be completely uncontrollable. It's just that one of the groups will overthrow Lukashenka and seize power. Then officials and security officials who are not part of the winning faction will find themselves in an even more dangerous position.