Lukashenka’s Fate Is in Hands of the Belarusian People

The regime has entered a stage of half-decay and self-liquidation.

Russian political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev writes on politoboz.com that Lukashenka and his ruling regime are entering the spring political season in extremely tense conditions:

- The first and foremost problem for the Belarusian authorities is the impending Spring Offensive. The political regime shows its concern and accuses the regime's opponents of future political destabilization in advance.

The unrest among the regime's top officials is clear. In the next few weeks, the Belarusian regime will face a peculiar test of its survivability. It is hard to predict the result of the test, as the fate of Lukashenka and his regime will be in the hands of the Belarusian people, or to be more precise, it will be decided by the residents of the residential areas of Minsk.

The political analyst expressed the opinion that Lukashenka lost a winter trying to deceive everybody - his people and Moscow:

- Did the Belarusian leader succeed? If it had been 1994-2000, Lukashenka could have succeeded. Now, it's 2021. The Belarusian leader won through the first wave of the Belarusian revolution injured and not annihilated, having lost credibility both inside and outside the country. Besides, the regime has long entered the stage of half-decay, so the objective processes of its transformation and self-liquidation cannot be deluded.

At present, there is no Russia behind Lukashenka's back. Naturally, as we have already noted, Lukashenka will do his best to disguise the fact that Moscow has turned on the meter. The Belarusian leader steps into the spring of 2021 "barefoot and naked".

Under the existing conditions, the authorities mobilize everything they can. The economy attempts to stop the price rise, which is nonsense in the country increasingly dependent on imports. Meanwhile, a form of "prodrazverstka" was introduced in the industry, when the accounts of more or less profitable enterprises are emptied to pay salaries to the employees of bankrupt factories. Other measures are taken to squeeze currency literally out of thin air.

Besides, the utility crisis has crept up on Belarus. One cannot live off the Soviet water supply and heating networks forever. Since last June, even districts of the Belarusian capital have been left without water, heating or light.

Something similar happened in Russia in the early 2000s. Moscow allocated vast sums of money to reconstruct the housing and utilities sector backed by the reforms. In Belarus, it is not possible for political reasons. Also, there is no money. It makes no sense to wait for it under Lukashenka.

In this material, we bypass the tragedy of the pandemic, which has remained. Although, in February 2021, it suddenly turned out that Lukashenka had spent a billion dollars to fight the coronavirus, which no one had seen. The targets that swallowed so much money were never disclosed.

Andrei Suzdaliev believes Lukashenka and his regime are blocked by the spring of 2021:

- On one side, we have hundreds of thousands of his citizens, ready for a fierce fight with the regime, and Moscow stands on the other side.