Fight for Belarus: Putin and Lukashenka Losing Control Over the Situation

Belarusian society is defeating the plans of both autocrats.

This week, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus announced the deployment of a tank battalion westward to the Polish border. The move coincided with a threatening Russian troop buildup in Kaliningrad and near the Ukrainian border.

A few days before this announcement, Deputy Chief of the Belarusian General Staff Pavel Muraveiko said that the massive joint military exercise West-2021 with Russia in September would focus on waging a "hybrid war" and deal with both offensive and defensive aspects.

The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it would close several embassies in Western countries. According to leaked information, these are the embassies in Poland, the Baltic States, and Ukraine. The announcement came days after reports that Lukashenka and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone about "threats" emanating from Poland and the United States.

The Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports that the series of personnel reshuffles means an information war. "Ideologically proven personnel have been appointed to lead the 'troops' for this purpose."

Uladzimir Pertsou, former head of the Belarusian office of Mir, will be the new Minister of Information of the Republic of Belarus. Analysts argue that Mir is "a symbol of Russia's informational presence in the post-Soviet space" and Pertsou's appointment is "an ideological bow to Moscow".

These military, diplomatic, personnel moves come in the context of a marked expansion of Russia's economic, political and military presence in Belarus. It includes a record number of joint military exercises planned for this year, which allow Moscow to use force rotation to achieve a de facto permanent presence of troops in the country. It also includes a campaign to seize the "pearls" of the Belarusian economy at the hands of Kremlin-affiliated oligarchs.

However, as the unmistakable tendency towards the Russification of the Belarusian state develops, a completely different dynamic is evolving in the Belarusian civil society: ordinary Belarusians are becoming more and more estranged from Russia and more eager to accept the West. Recent polls demonstrate this tendency.

In a November 2020 poll conducted by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop (BAW), 40% of respondents said Belarus would be better off in an alliance with Russia, while 33% favoured integration with the European Union. It marked a sharp drop in pro-Russian sentiment and a rise in pro-European one since a similar poll in September 2020, when 52% favoured integration with Russia, while only 27% supported closer ties with Europe.

Polls also show a sharp drop in support for Putin, who has historically been very popular in Belarus. According to a November 2020 online poll, 34.6% of Belarusians said that their opinion of Putin worsened because of Russia's actions in Belarus since the protests began in August 2020. Only 7.5% said their opinion of Putin had improved. Besides, 33.9% say that relations between Russia and the Belarusian people will worsen because of Russia's actions. Only 18.3% said they would improve.

The Chatham House poll also shows that an increasing number of Belarusians see integration with Russia in a negative light. According to this poll, about 33.3% believe that integration with Russia would make Belarus more corrupt; 39.4% believe it would mean the end of the Belarusian statehood and 45% believe that Belarusians can improve their identity only in a fully independent country.

A poll conducted by the Warsaw Center for Oriental Studies (OSW) in late November and early December 2020 also showed that 43% of respondents believe Russia is the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is the highest figure of any country surveyed.

The change in attitudes is also reflected in a reassessment of the country's history and identity. Belarusians are increasingly looking back at the country's European history before its incorporation into the Russian Empire in 1796, especially the centuries the Belarusian lands spent as part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Rzeczpospolita.

An OSW poll showed, for example, that a staggering 62.2 per cent of Belarusians believe their country should draw inspiration from periods when they were not ruled by Russia. According to OSW, "many more Belarusians believe their state should draw on the traditions of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (39.7% and 6.3%, respectively) rather than the Soviet Union (28%). One should also note the relatively good result for the Belarusian People's Republic (16.2%), a short-lived entity resulting from the failed attempt to build an independent and anti-communist Belarusian state in 1918.

The battle lines in Belarus are growing clearer, confronting a society that wants to move to the West against a regime that firmly supports Russia.

Supporting the aspirations of the Belarusian people and civil society, the West seems to be on the right side of history. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is gradually losing the Belarusian people and seeking a geopolitical and political advantage against the West by supporting a weakening autocratic regime.

Brian Whitmore, atlanticcouncil.org