It will only be getting worse from now on.
Well, well, the ruble can accept congratulations - another record has been set. They give 2,6676 rubles per dollar. Obviously, it was decided to retreat from the corridor 2.58-2.63, where the dollar was holding on for about six months.
Now the National Bank hopes that it will manage to lower the rate in a controlled manner, but prevent a sharp collapse. Earlier, we said that the limit threshold of the rate is 2.8 rubles. However, some experts say that it can fly up to 3 rubles. Some banks are even considering a scenario where the rate will be around 4 rubles in the next few months. The bottom line is that the processes in the economy are becoming less and less controllable.
Meanwhile, let us note two facts.
1. Gold and foreign exchange reserves fell by another $ 174.5 million, and fell below $ 7 billion - 6.9 billion. Since the beginning of the year, the reserves have shrunk by $ 528.5 million. The National Bank hopes that by the end of the year the reserves will not fall below $ 6 billion. However, it is not known whether the National Bank is telling the truth. It could be so that the level of reserves is overstated by at least 30-40 percent.
2. The IMF has come up with a forecast for Belarus on GDP for 2021. Experts expect a drop of 0.4% (in 2020, the drop was 0.9%). The World Bank's forecast is even worse - minus 2.2%.
Well, in addition, here are a few fresh figures from Belarusian enterprises: Homelglass - a net loss of $ 15.6 million (debts increased from $ 205 million to $ 329 million), Ivatsevichydrev - a net loss of $ 26.6 million. Hrodna Azot - $ 35 million.
The US sanctions really shock all Belneftekhim enterprises. Colleagues have already written about the scheming Hrodna-Azot implies while trying to bypass them. Scheduled repairs have been postponed at Mazyr Oil Refinery. So far till August, but if the agrofuehrer is not removed, it’s possible that the repair will never happen.
Also, the end of the modernization has been postponed once again. Halouchanka's visit to the enterprise recorded: they will not be able to launch the hydrocracking unit in May. The new plan is the end of the year. But again, the imposition of sanctions can turn this project into a never-ending one. Cars with Russian license plates were spotted in Mazyr. Let us remind you that Slavneft owns 42.5 percent of the plant's shares.
According to Nick, several more decisions on trade restrictions will be made in the middle of the month, which will finish off the industry.
There are also external signs of lawlessness. Many people write that the condition of roads in Belarus has deteriorated sharply. Incomein provides a schedule for the construction of roads in Belarus, and also gives a small explanation in the comments: “In 2020, compared to 2008, the length of overhauled republican highways decreased by 23.4 times and the length of roads on which the running repairs were conducted also decreased, by 3.5 times. Due to insufficient funding, the restoration of annual wear and tear is not ensured, and this leads to an irreversible process of gradual destruction of road surfaces.”
Recently, utility services have been busy removing ribbons rather than taking on their direct duties. By the way, it seems that the fastest way to get a hole on the road repaired is to arrange it in the white and red color scheme. Wanna give it a try?
But the main thing is that we do not have a fall. Not even negative growth. All we have is “everything goes according to the plan”. It is classified this year, but nevertheless obvious that this is a plan of moving into the abyss.
We advise you to continue withdrawing money from cards (any amount - even 50 rubles) and transferring it into foreign currency. The National Bank has already introduced a rule that the withdrawal of 5,800 rubles per week will make you a suspect in financing the protests. It will only get worse from now on.
Nick and Mike Telegram channel.