Valery Karbalevich: Lukashenka Has Launched a Process That Will Have Unforeseen Consequences for Him

Decree No. 2 is a sign of doom.

On May 9, Lukashenka issued an unconstitutional decree granting presidential powers to the Security Council, political analyst Valery Karbalevich writes on the Svobodnye Novosti website.

With the appearance of this document, many incomprehensible questions arise. For example, what if Lukashenka was not killed, but he died a natural death or died as a result of a car or plane crash? And if he is wounded but cannot fulfill his duties, in which case this decree comes into force or the Constitution is in effect?

And further. The decree says that, simultaneously with the transfer of power to the Security Council, martial law or a state of emergency is introduced in the country. And paragraph 4 talks about elections. But under martial law, elections are not held. Hence, it must be canceled. But then the powers of the Security Council end, because, according to the logic and spirit of the decree, it performs the functions of the president only during the state of emergency. Or not?

In other words, with his decree, Lukashenka created a huge legal mess that cannot end well.

The possible consequences of this decision are no less interesting. Moreover, not only political and legal. The adoption of the decree will have an impact on public consciousness.

This decree is in case Lukashenka is killed. That is, the average person sees that the country has entered a period of turmoil and uncertainty. And the main destabilizing factor was Lukashenka himself.

Decree No. 2 is a kind of political testament to Lukashenka. When do we write a will? It is somewhere out there in America, all people write such documents at a young age. And this is not accepted in our country. Here, the will is written on the eve of leaving for another, better world. In our case, we are talking about political withdrawal.

And, now, Lukashenka himself and his entourage, perhaps unwillingly, have raised the issue of Belarus without Lukashenka. Decree No. 2 is a sign of doom. That is, with this decree, he opens the post-Lukashenka horizon for society. By signing the decree, Lukashenka puts on the agenda of public discussions the question of what will happen after Lukashenka, unwittingly provoking an artificial crisis of his legitimacy. In the subconsciousness of the Belarusian society, the idea is laid that Belarus can live without Lukashenka. This is especially important for his supporters.

In any case, Lukashenka, by his decree, launches a process that will have unforeseen consequences for its author.