"No Wonder the Authorities Are So Worried about Western Sanctions"

The people will look for the guilty not in the Washington Regional Committee but somewhere closer.

Yesterday, the State Development Bank announced a remarkable achievement: for the first quarter, it issued export loans of 384 million rubles with a growth rate of 178 percent compared to the first quarter of last year (in case you did not know, an export loan is a loan that is issued from a seller to a buyer if the buyer right now does not have enough money to buy a tractor), writes the Letters to the Daughter Telegram channel.

And, of course, export credits are a useful thing because they help stimulate sales and open up new markets. But in our specific circumstances, the record growth of export credits seems to indicate not only the remarkable successes of the Development Bank but more of the problems in the subordinate enterprises. Because 22 percent of all loans were issued for the products of the Belarusian Metallurgical Plant, and another 36 percent were received by buyers of Belarusian cars and tractors. That is, even those not very convincing achievements of the Belarusian export that happened in the first quarter were, as it turns out, a little paid for by the Belarusian state. (Well, as with the parade of tractors in the Vitsebsk region at the end of last year, for which the Belarusian Ministry of Finance paid so that the governor of the Minsk region could report a beautiful figure of 99.9 percent of GDP). And these achievements cannot be explained by success in the development of new markets. After all, the Development Bank issued 56 percent of its loans to buyers in Russia.

And so, it turns out that even the current economic stability (well, it is what it is) is a very fragile structure. Because factories are saved from default by bank injections, unconvincing economic growth has been stimulated by state loans, and they even have to pay for their own exports at least in part.

In general, it is not surprising that the Belarusian authorities are so worried about Western sanctions. Because when the structure is so unstable, any external bad influences are categorically contraindicated to it. Especially impacts, the consequences of which are difficult to predict. As with Naftan. Who would have thought that the US sanctions would dry up Russian oil first? Prime Minister Halouchanka, however, said that everything is normal with oil and it flows in accordance with contracts. And Prime Minister Halouchanka, of course, is the kind of person who is hard not to believe. But, if everything is really good with oil, then I would still like to hear exactly how good it is. Desirable with volumes of supplies and specific suppliers.

But the sanctions of the American Ministry of Finance have not really been involved in the work yet. Because even if it turns out to be a regular solution with oil, then later it will be necessary to look for buyers for gasoline. And it seems to me that, for buyers in the UK and Holland, the sanctions of the American Ministry of Finance will prove to be a more convincing argument than the export credits of the Belarusian Development Bank.

Sanctions and any economic difficulties cannot be a threat to the authorities if there is mutual sympathy between the authorities and the people. Because if such sympathy exists, then, due to economic difficulties, the people will only rally more closely around the authorities against those who, harm their well-being with sanctions. But if instead of sympathy, quite the opposite, there is some dislike, then the ungrateful people will look for the guilty not in the Washington Regional Committee but somewhere closer...